Miercoles 08/11/10 Bernanke actua nuevamente

[admin]

SPANISHAUGUST 10, 2010, 12:52 P.M. ET
La integración de las bolsas de Chile, Colombia y Perú aún enfrenta obstáculos


Por Carolina Pica

SANTIAGO (Dow Jones)--Los planes de integración de los mercados bursátiles de Chile, Colombia y Perú todavía enfrentan significativos obstáculos de regulación, declaró el martes un analista chileno.

Los países buscan integrar sus mercados bursátiles y fondos fiduciarios en dos etapas, con los inversionistas en condiciones de cotizar en los distintos mercados para fines del año próximo.

Mientras los reguladores de valores de los tres países trabajan para crear la infraestructura y modificar las normativas para las negociaciones de valores, todavía restan varios obstáculos legales y tributarios, dijo Guillermo Tagle, director ejecutivo del banco de inversión IM Trust.

Tagle destacó que la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos desarrollaron sus mercados de capitales de forma auto contenida y no consideraron la posibilidad de una integración futura.

Ahora se busca crear un modelo de mercado único y transparente en cual se aplique la misma normativa. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de los tres mercados es diferente; el índice bursátil de referencia chileno se compone principalmente de acciones de los sectores de servicios, comercio minorista e industrial, mientras que la mitad del principal índice colombiano corresponde al sector de la energía y Perú tiene una alta ponderación de la minería.

[admin]

SPANISHAUGUST 10, 2010, 8:25 P.M. ET
Chávez y Santos tratan de dejar atrás el pasado, ¿pero podrán convivir en el futuro?
Por Darcy Crowe

BOGOTÁ (Dow Jones)—El presidente colombiano Juan Manuel Santos y su homólogo venezolano Hugo Chávez dieron pasos para dar por terminado un amargo enfrentamiento diplomático, pese a que las claras diferencias ideológicas entre los dos podrían torpedear fácilmente las relaciones en el futuro.

Los dos líderes se reunieron en martes en lo que Chávez calificó como un esfuerzo por "reconstruir lo que se había destruido". Al final de la reunión, los dos dos mandatarios acordaron restaurar las relaciones diplomáticas entre los dos países.

La reunión con Chávez marcó la primer iniciativa de Santos, quien asumió el cargo el sábado, con un fuerte mandato de continuar con las políticas de seguridad y de mercado de su predecesor, Álvaro Uribe.

Aunque prometió continuar con el legado de su predecesor, Santos está marcando su propio territorio al moverse rápidamente para restaurar los lazos con Chávez.

El presidente venezolano rompió las relaciones diplomáticas con Colombia después que el gobierno de Uribe asegurara que más de 1.500 guerrilleros venezolanos se encuentran en territorio venezolano mientras que las autoridades de ese país no hacen nada al respecto. Chávez ha negado en repetidas ocasiones esas acusaciones.

Los señalamientos fueron vistos por los analistas como el último disparo de Uribe en una larga serie de enfrentamientos con Chávez y también como una advertencia para que Santos mantenga su distancia frente al líder venezolano.

Sin embargo, Santos está apostando a que enmendar las relaciones con Venezuela le podría dar un impulso a los exportadores colombianos, los cuales han perdido miles de millones de dólares debido a los choques diplomáticos y también podría ayudar a convencer a Chávez de la importancia de ayudar a cerrarle la frontera a la guerrilla.

Si hay otras disputas en el futuro "al menos Santos podrá decir que comenzó extendiéndole la mano", dijo Adam Isacson, socio del grupo estadounidense The Washington Office on Latin America.

Mantener buenas relaciones con Venezuela será un difícil reto para el nuevo presidente colombiano.

Chávez y Uribe mostraron una conexión personal en sus primeros encuentros hace ocho años, intercambiando públicamente anécdotas y chistes. La relación posteriormente se deterioró al punto en que Chávez ahora se refiere usualmente a Uribe como un "mafioso" ligado a grupos paramilitares de derecha. Chávez también acusó a Colombia de trabajar con Washington para derrocar su revolución socialista.

Un destino similar podría estar aguardando a Santos. Los servicios de inteligencia de Colombia están seguros que líderes clave de la guerrilla Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) se encuentran en Venezuela y el propio Santos, quien se desempeñó como ministro de Defensa del gobierno Santos ha repetido esas acusaciones en el pasado.

"El mejoramiento de las relaciones sólo va a durar hasta que haya otro problema debido a la presencia de las FARC en Venezuela", dijo Isacson.

La relación entre Santos y Chávez también podría sufrir en el futuro debido a las diferencias de personalidad entre los dos.

Santos, el heredero de una rica e influyente familia Bogotana, personifica a los "oligarcas" que Chávez ha marcado como enemigos de su revolución. Santos, educado en Harvard y en el London School of Economics, también defiende las ideas de libre mercado que son rechazadas por el gobierno venezolano.

Santos también desea continuar fortaleciendo los lazos económicos y militares entre Colombia y EE.UU., algo que fácilmente podría desatar choques diplomáticos en el futuro.

"Las diferencias personales son profundas", dijo Michael Shifter, presidente de Inter-American Dialogue, un centro de investigación no partidista en Washington. "Cada uno representa lo que al otro no le gusta".

[admin]

Dólar cae a mínimo de 15 años frente al yen
miércoles 11 de agosto de 2010 07:23 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] LONDRES (Reuters) - El dólar tocó un mínimo de 15 años contra el yen el miércoles, al profundizar sus pérdidas luego de que los operadores empujaran al billete verde a romper una barrera psicológica clave.
El dólar se hundió hasta un mínimo de 84,72 yenes, según la plataforma electrónica EBS, su menor nivel desde julio de 1995. Las pérdidas se aceleraron tras órdenes de frenar pérdidas en torno a los 84,80 yenes, dijeron operadores.

El euro descendía más del 2 por ciento en el día a 110,14 yenes, de acuerdo a datos de Reuters, mientras que el dólar australiano también bajaba un 2 por ciento contra la divisa nipona.

[admin]

Macy's reporta utilidades mejores a las esperadas, las ganancias de Nestle sube 7.5%

GM dice que sus ganancias mejoraran en 6 anios.

Las ganancias de ING suben.

[admin]

El IEA dijo que la demanda de petroleo subira en 80,000 barriles diarios este anio.

Las economias de US y China estan desacelerando y los inventarios estan altos, esos factores no le dan soporte al precio del petroleo.

Se esepra que los inventarios de petroleo caigan en 2 millones de barriles. Los de gasolina deben mantenerse en los mismos niveles.

Oil Prices Fall on IEA Report
By PADDY GOURLAY
LONDON—Oil prices fell after the International Energy Agency warned demand could take a substantial hit should economic growth falter, a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve made downbeat comments about U.S. growth prospects.

The drop in prices came even as the Paris-based IEA raised its forecast for world crude oil demand by 80,000 barrels a day in 2010 from its July report.

Prices had fallen Tuesday on the Fed's comments as well as news that Chinese crude oil imports in July were sharply down on the previous month.

"Further evidence that the U.S. recovery is struggling and that the Chinese economy is cooling down, in addition to high inventory levels and rising production, does not paint a very bright picture," said Filip Petersson, an analyst at SEB Commodity Research in Stockholm.

The front-month September Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange recently traded 81 cents lower at $78.79 a barrel. The front-month September contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, called West Texas Intermediate, is trading 92 cents lower at $79.33 a barrel.

Meanwhile, a tropical depression that has formed over the Gulf of Mexico could support prices by shutting down oil production and shipping in the region.

Weekly U.S. oil inventory statistics will be published by the Department of Energy at 10:30 a.m. EDT, but should make little difference to the near record-high stockpiles in the world's largest oil consumer, analysts said.

Crude-oil inventories are expected to fall by 2 million barrels, according to the mean of 14 analysts' forecasts. Gasoline inventories are expected to remain unchanged, while stocks of distillate, which includes heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise 1.6 million barrels.

The ICE's gasoil contract for August delivery is $7.50 lower at $662.00 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for September delivery is 1.52 cents down at 207.01 cents a gallon.

[Francesco]

en el after todo a la baja......wow

[admin]

Quantitative easing II

El Fe revive al helicoptero

Bernanke le hace honor a su apodo "helicoptero Ben"

Las medidas del Fed son aplaudidas por el gobierno, cuyas medidas estimulativas han fracasado, Wall Street tambien le da la bienvenida a la mayor liquidez.

La pregunta es que tanto van a ayudar estas medidas? el Fed solo ha cambiado la velocidad, en lugar de ir a 200 millas por hora ahora va a ir a 190 millas por hora.

El dinero facil es una estrategia poderosa, pero no es todo. El Fed provee de mayor liquidez pero el problema es que la economia privada no tiene la confianza para poner a trabajar su capital. El gobierno ha impuesto tantos obstaculos a la toma de riesgo en todos los niveles y ha agreagado una serie de gastos a los negocios y a la contratacion de personal que lo negocios no tienen mas alternativas que desconfiar y ser super cuidadosos. El Fed puede imprimir mas dinero, pero no puede forzar a las personas a prestar dinero, a prestarse dinero o a invertir.

El peligro de una fragil recuperacion no es si el Fed repite su error de super ajustar sus politicas de los anios 1937-38. Con Bernanke en el timon, nunca hubo una remoto riesgo de que eso ocurra. El peligro es que los politicos estaran esperanzados en que el Fed les salvara el dia cuando ellos deberia estar removiendo las barreras al crecimiento que Washington se enpenia en seguir poniendo.


QE 2
The Fed revs up the helicopter

The Federal Reserve waded back into "quantitative easing" Tuesday, albeit with only one leg this time. But the message is clear that if the economic outlook deteriorates further, the Fed is prepared to do what it takes to reflate. Chairman Ben Bernanke stands ready to live up to his famous nickname of "Helicopter Ben."

This will no doubt be welcomed with cheers at the White House, where the best-laid spending plans have failed to stimulate. Wall Street will also by and large welcome the promise of extra liquidity, since stocks always benefit in the early stages of a reflation. If anything, the Street wanted even more aggressive easing.

How much this will help the economy is the more important question, and on that point we wouldn't expect miracles. The Fed has already set its target fed funds rate at near zero for 20 months, an unprecedented attempt at monetary stimulus. Yesterday the Fed decided it won't slowly shrink its balance sheet, which would have resulted in monetary policy moving from 200 miles per hour to 190 or so.

.Instead the Fed will stay at full throttle, reinvesting the proceeds from the expiring mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet into the direct purchase of long-term Treasury securities. The idea is to keep bond rates low, though with the 10-year note trading at 2.77% it's hard to see how they can get much lower.

Easy money is a powerful policy tool, but it can't do everything. The Fed is supplying more liquidity but the problem is that the private economy lacks the confidence to put it to work. The federal government has imposed so many obstacles to risk-taking, and so many new costs on business and hiring, that business and consumers are hyper-cautious. The Fed can print more money, but it can't make people lend, borrow or invest.

The danger to this fragile recovery isn't that the Fed will repeat its overtightening mistake of 1937-38. With Mr. Bernanke at the helm, there was never even a remote chance of that. The danger is that our politicians keep hoping the Fed will save the day when they should be removing the barriers to growth that Washington keeps piling on.

[admin]

El deficit comercial de US es $49.9 billones

Oil down 79.24

Yen 84.90

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Au up 1,208.50, el oro se dispara.

[Francesco]

Ha estas horas
FAS $21.81
ERX $21.83
APC $53.00
BP $ 39.21
AIB $ 2.39
ABK $ 0.66
DPTR $ 0.78
DAL $ 11.5
BVN $ 36.31

[admin]

A ver si esto se modera durante el dia, lo de China no es novedad, lo de Inglaterra no es noticia, lo de US no es noticia tampoco, todo eso lo sabemos de memoria.

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AIG -2.94%

C -1.38%

BVN -1.13%

DIA -1.19%

FAS -4.05%

RTP -3.69%

MBI -3.02%

EDC -5.19%

DRN -4.93%

[admin]

Obama el obsoleto

La magia del 2008 desaparecio

Comparan a Obama con L. Johnson, no con Kennedy, no con FDR, como Johnson Obama no se conecta con su pueblo, no hay una coneccion emocional con los Americanos. Es un extranio.

Su caida del pedestal ha sido tan facil y rapida como su ascendencia hace dos anios. Obama esta haciendo campania por los candidatos democratas para las elecciones de Noviembre a la distancia, las turbas que lo adoraban son cosas del pasado.

El gigante estimulode $862 millones ha fracasado, y los que han querido implementar un segundo estimulo se han encontrado con la resistencia mayoritaria de los Americanos. El panico que puso a Obama en la presidencia se ha disipado, la estrategia de Obama ha perdido el consensus de los gobernados.

Obama puede protestar y decir que su caida no es su culpa. El ha sido una propuesta vacia que sus votantes proyectaron con sus suenios y esperanzas. Su victoria no fue el triunfo de sus politicas ya que el nunca ha gobernado nada en toda su vida.

Hubo en 1980 otra eleccion monumental, Ronald Reagan, un lider que encontro una pais enfermo domesticamente y debil en el extranjero. Su programa fue diferente al de Obama. Su fe en su pais era ilimatada. Lo que el busco fue restaurar la fe de los Americanos en su nacion, en su politica y en su vitalidad economica.

El gobierno de Reagan fue monumental, en dos eleccions pero el hombre nunca penso ser mas grande que su pais. Nunca hubo narcisismo o el sentimiento de que el destino lo habia elegido para estar alli en ese momento. El le dio toda la gloria a su pais no a el mismo y resalto la habilidad de la capacidad de US para recuperarse. No hubo una clase politica ansiosa de poner las manos en el gobierno para suplantar las fuerzas del mercado con sus preferencias economicas.

No todo fue facil durante su gobierno, pero los Americanos lo apoyaron y se recupero, su contacto con lso Americanos fue fuerte y verdadero.


The Obsolescence of Barack Obama
The magic of 2008 can't be recreated, and good riddance to it

By FOUAD AJAMI
Not long ago Barack Obama, for those who were spellbound by him, had the stylishness of JFK and the historic mission of FDR riding to the nation's rescue. Now it is to Lyndon B. Johnson's unhappy presidency that Democratic strategist Robert Shrum compares the stewardship of Mr. Obama. Johnson, wrote Mr. Shrum in the Week magazine last month, never "sustained an emotional link with the American people" and chose to escalate a war that "forced his abdication as president."

A broken link with the public, and a war in Afghanistan he neither embraces and sells to his party nor abandons—this is a time of puzzlement for President Obama. His fall from political grace has been as swift as his rise a handful of years ago. He had been hot political property in 2006 and, of course, in 2008. But now he will campaign for his party's 2010 candidates from afar, holding fund raisers but not hitting the campaign trail in most of the contested races. Those mass rallies of Obama frenzy are surely of the past.

The vaunted Obama economic stimulus, at $862 billion, has failed. The "progressives" want to double down, and were they to have their way, would have pushed for a bigger stimulus still. But the American people are in open rebellion against an economic strategy of public debt, higher taxes and unending deficits. We're not all Keynesians, it turns out. The panic that propelled Mr. Obama to the presidency has waned. There is deep concern, to be sure. But the Obama strategy has lost the consent of the governed.

Mr. Obama could protest that his swift and sudden fall from grace is no fault of his. He had been a blank slate, and the devotees had projected onto him their hopes and dreams. His victory had not been the triumph of policies he had enunciated in great detail. He had never run anything in his entire life. He had a scant public record, but oddly this worked to his advantage. If he was going to begin the world anew, it was better that he knew little about the machinery of government.

He pronounced on the American condition with stark, unalloyed confidence. He had little if any regard for precedents. He could be forgiven the thought that America's faith in economic freedom had given way and that he had the popular writ to move the nation toward a super-regulated command economy. An "economic emergency" was upon us, and this would be the New New Deal.

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.There was no hesitation in the monumental changes Mr. Obama had in mind. The logic was Jacobin, the authority deriving from a perceived mandate to recast time-honored practices. It was veritably rule by emergency decrees. If public opinion displayed no enthusiasm for the overhaul of the nation's health-care system, the administration would push on. The public would adjust in due time.

The nation may be ill at ease with an immigration reform bill that would provide some 12 million illegal immigrants a path toward citizenship, but the administration would still insist on the primacy of its own judgment. It would take Arizona to court, even though the public let it be known that it understood Arizona's immigration law as an expression of that state's frustration with the federal government's abdication of its responsibility over border security.

It was clear as daylight that there was a built-in contradiction between opening the citizenship rolls to a vast flood of new petitioners and a political economy of redistribution favored by the Obama administration. The choice was stark: You could either "spread the wealth around" or open the gates for legalizing millions of immigrants of lower skills. You could not do both.

It was canonical to this administration and its functionaries that they were handed a broken nation, that it was theirs to repair, that it was theirs to tax and reshape to their preferences. Yet there was, in 1980, after another landmark election, a leader who had stepped forth in a time of "malaise" at home and weakness abroad: Ronald Reagan. His program was different from Mr. Obama's. His faith in the country was boundless. What he sought was to restore the nation's faith in itself, in its political and economic vitality.


Big as Reagan's mandate was, in two elections, the man was never bigger than his county. There was never narcissism or a bloated sense of personal destiny in him. He gloried in the country, and drew sustenance from its heroic deeds and its capacity for recovery. No political class rode with him to power anxious to lay its hands on the nation's treasure, eager to supplant the forces of the market with its own economic preferences.

To be sure, Reagan faltered midway through his second term—the arms-for-hostages trade, the Iran-Contra affair, nearly wrecked his presidency. But he recovered, the nation rallied around him and carried him across the finish line, his bond with the electorate deep and true. He had two years left of his stewardship, and his political recovery was so miraculous that he, and his first mate, Secretary of State George P. Shultz, would seal the nation's victory in the Cold War.

There is little evidence that the Obama presidency could yet find new vindication, another lease on life. Mr. Obama will mark time, but henceforth he will not define the national agenda. He will not be the repository of its hopes and sentiments. The ambition that his would be a "transformational" presidency—he rightly described Reagan's stewardship in these terms—is for naught.

There remains the fact of his biography, a man's journey. Personality is doubtless an obstacle to his recovery. The detachment of Mr. Obama need not be dwelled upon at great length, so obvious it is now even to the pundits who had a "tingling sensation" when they beheld him during his astonishing run for office. Nor does Mr. Obama have the suppleness of Bill Clinton, who rose out of the debris of his first two years in the presidency, dusted himself off, walked away from his spouse's radical attempt to remake the country's health-delivery system, and moved to the political center.

It is in the nature of charisma that it rises out of thin air, out of need and distress, and then dissipates when the magic fails. The country has had its fill with a scapegoating that knows no end from a president who had vowed to break with recriminations and partisanship. The magic of 2008 can't be recreated, and good riddance to it. Slowly, the nation has recovered its poise. There is a widespread sense of unstated embarrassment that a political majority, if only for a moment, fell for the promise of an untested redeemer—a belief alien to the temperament of this so practical and sober a nation.

Mr. Ajami is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

[admin]

Tradicionalmente Agosto es un buen mes para la bolsa, como ayer el Dow Jones debe abrir a la baja en mas de 100 puntos y esperemos que al ver las ofertas de precio de corporaciones Americanas impecables con buenos balances, crecimiento y ventas (el 50% de las ventas de las companias Americanas mas grandes provienen del extranjero) los bulls entren a comprar.

China crecio 11.1% en el primer semestre, si desacelera sera a 8%, 9% o 10% que todavia sigue siendo un super crecimiento comparado al resto del mundo.

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[admin]

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Los bears en control

Au up 1,207.40, oil down 79.05

[bachelor]

Aguila, estos dias son dificiles, bien dices tu hay que entrar y salir en el dia, no chorrea pero de gota en gota se va haciendo profits. suerte.

[admin]

VIX up 25.33

Oil down 78.91

-202.75

Yields down 2.71%

Todo 4% o 5% o mas a la baja.