Miercoles 05/03/13 Beige Book, ordenes de fabricas

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AAPL +0.38%

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Los futures del Dow Jones 61 puntos al alza.

Euro down 1.3029

Au up 1,575.40

Oil down 90.59

Brent down 111.35

Francia +0.23%

Futures cu up 3.51

Yen down 93.47

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Recordaran en este foro tambien se dijo que el mercado ya habia tocado piso.

Los pros que pronosticaron el piso en el 2009, ahora piensan que el mercado seguira subiendo.

The Pros Who Called the ’09 Bottom

Jack BogleJack Bogle, the father of index funds, isn’t very impressed by the fact that he called the market’s bottom in March 2009.

When asked by MarketBeat, he was dismissive about it. “I’d have to look at what I said,” the founder of Vanguard Funds offered up. “I almost never talk about tops and bottoms. I have to be very humble about that.”

Bogle is one of the small contingent of market insiders who, back in March 2009 when the equities market was coming to the end of a historic plunge, realized the market was hitting bottom, and said so. It wasn’t an easy time to do so. Fear was rampant. Hundreds of thousands of people were losing their jobs monthly as companies cut deep. The market was terrified of the new administration, and the new Treasury Secretary in particular. Few saw through the haze.

The few who did see through that haze, like Bogle and Jeff Saut and Doug Kass, were the early adopters of a bull run that now, nearly four years to the day from that low, has returned the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to it 2007 high.

The guys who called it saw it coming. In a Feb. 24, 2009, interview on Bloomberg, Bogle said “We’ve got to be getting close to the lows in the stock market finally.” BusinessWeek’s Roben Farzad maintains that Bogle called the bottom while on an Acela train ride, on March 9, the day the S&P 500 made its post-crash closing low of 676.

“I was pretty sure of that call,” said Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, another person who made the call. He actually thought the market had started bottoming in October of 2008. “The market was totally washed out, all the bad news was on the table, stocks were oversold.”

Saut made his prediction in a March 2 interview on Bloomberg, when he said the lows had been hit and he was going “all in.” It was not a popular opinion among his firm’s clients, he said. At the time, after six months of the worst selling anybody had seen in their lives, few people were willing to accept that the worst was over. The prevailing sentiment was utter gloom.

“In many ways, it was the polar opposite” of the sentiment in the market today, said Doug Kass, who runs the hedge-fund Seabreeze Partners Management. Kass made his call on the Kudlow Show on March 2, saying the market would hit bottom in the next few days. “Developing variant views is always a hard thing to do,” he said. “It exposes a manager to not only investment risk but business risk.”

Kass, who this week was named Warren Buffett’s designated “bear,” said he got a “huge amount of pushback” on his call. “People like to buy stocks when they’re higher and sell when they’re lower,” the exact opposite of the bedrock “buy low, sell high” Street wisdom. “People prefer the comfort of the herd.”

Saut also got a lot of grief for his call, and it’s been a long time waiting for his clients to get on board. “Most of them still haven’t,” he said. “They ended up puking up their stocks during the whole bottoming process” and haven’t been in stocks since.

Market timing is not a game Vanguard’s Bogle likes to play. Indeed, the entire field of index funds that he pioneered argues against it. His 2009 call was merely his assessment of the market’s potential, something he said he derived by using “simple math.”

In 2009, nobody was using “simple math,” they were using their panicked hearts. “My experience is the market overdoes everything,” Bogle said. While it’s relatively easy to forecast the market’s potential investment returns, forecasting speculative returns is much harder. “Nobody knows what people are going to be willing to pay,” at times of panic, Bogle said.

“You could have easily said that (March 2009) was a bottom and been wrong.”

But Bogle doesn’t think the market is overdoing it now on this ride up. “I don’t believe valuations are excessive here,” he said. Some of the numbers getting bandied about in the press make it seem like it’s going up more than it is, he said.

Kass, though, thinks the market is overpriced and due for a pullback, something in the 5-6% range, and he said he’s shorting the market now, just like he started buying after his bottom call. And can we ask how well he did off that 2009 call?

“No,” he said.

Saut is bullish. He thinks there’s a 25% probability this post-crisis recovery will turn into a full-fledged bull market, the kind that lasts for years. He’s keeping an eye on the old Dow Theory signal; the high set Tuesday by the DJIA, joining the Dow Transports in record territory, “absolutely” confirms the move.

“And nobody believes it,” he said. “It’s absolutely unbelievable.”

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Solo se esperaba una creacion del 175,000 empleos privados en Febrero, en su lugar se crearon 198,000, mucho mejor de lo esperado.

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Los yields de Espana bajan, sus bonos suben.

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Poland recorta intereses. Su economia mal.

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Au down 1,572

Oil down 90.37

+45.77

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Euro down 130.17

+42.32

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SCCO +0.05%

BVN -0.86%

EPU -0.09%

BAP +0.37%

AAPL -0.06%

FAS +1.61%

EDC +0.69%

ERX +0.43%

C +1.33%

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USO -0.61%

BAC +2.88%

FB +1.74%

El sector financiero al alza.

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+34.83

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+30.45

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Au down 1,569.50

Yields up 1.93%

Futures cu down 3.49

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Yen down 93.52

Oil down 90.10

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VIX down 30.25