Jueves 19/11/15 Indicadores lideres

[Fenix]

Los indicadores económicos contradicen el optimismo inversor
Jueves, 19 de Noviembre del 2015 - 11:18
Como explicaremos en el comentario de cierre de mercado, los inversores se están posicionando alcistas en las bolsas por tres motivos principales: Normalización política monetaria de la Fed, nuevas medidas expansivas del BCE, compras ante el rally fin de año.

Sin embargo, ni los resultados empresariales, ni los indicadores económicos, justifican este optimismo. Hoy el índice Baltic Dry, que es un excelente indicador del transporte de mercancías global, ha caído al nivel más bajo de todos los tiempos. La caída en las importaciones china justifican gran parte de esta caída, pero también de otras importantes economías a nivel mundial.



Los inversores celebran la inminente subida de tipos, ¿pero deberían?

El Eurostoxx 50 sube un medio punto porcentual
Jueves, 19 de Noviembre del 2015 - 11:40:15

Moderadas alzas en las bolsas europeas, en una jornada muy tranquila, de escasa volatilidad y bajo volumen de negociación finalista. Los inversores europeos analizaban las actas de la última reunión de la Fed que el organismo publicó ayer con el mercado cerrado, y la conclusión es la misma que sus homólogos estadounidenses y asiáticos: La Reserva Federal subirá tipos en 25 puntos básicos en su reunión de diciembre.

La jornada comenzaba con las alzas en los mercados asiáticos, cercanas al 2% en promedio, ante el buen cierre ayer de Wall Street, y unos datos macroeconómicos positivos. Destacar el inesperado superávit japonés en su balanza exterior de 111,5 bn de yenes frente un déficit esperado de 246,3 bn. Sin sorpresas ante la decisión del Banco de Japón de mantener sus condiciones monetarias. Los votos fueron de 8 a favor y uno en contra, que defendía reducir el programa QE.

Las bolsas europeas en preapertura cotizaban con alzas cercanas al punto porcentual, porcentaje que sería alcanzado en la apertura. "Se despeja la incertidumbre. El inicio de la normalización monetaria en EE.UU. está ya descontada. Esperamos que los mercados de valores suban de aquí a final de año tanto por la relajación monetaria del BCE, como por la contracción monetaria de la Fed. Parece contradictorio, pero no lo es", nos comentaba un gestor nacional minutos antes de la apertura.

Los analistas de Link por su parte señalaban: "Es evidente que los inversores yadescuentan que la Fed, si nada cambia sustancialmente, iniciará el proceso de subidas de sus tiposde interés oficiales el mes que viene. No obstante, la mayoría de los miembros del FOMC insistieronen que el proceso será gradual, algo que los inversores ven con buenos ojos y que creemos fue loque espoleó las compras durante las últimas horas de la sesión, permitiendo a los principales índicesde este mercado cerrar con fuertes alzas."

Las bolsas han reaccionado al alza por la casi certeza de que la Fed iniciará la senda alcista de los tipos en diciembre... ¿pero deberían?


Según un análisis de Aspain 11 EAFI: En las últimas 16 veces que la Fed subió tipos de interés, el mercado entró en fase bajista o sufrió correcciones en 13 de ellas, 6 meses antes de dicha subida.

Desde el final de la II Guerra Mundial se produjeron 6 retrocesos (5-10%), 4 correcciones (10-20%) y 3 mercados bajistas (más del 20%). No obstante, tras las subida de tipos, el S&P 500 reaccionó con subidas cercanas al 2% en los 6 meses posteriores.

Estos datos indican que el escenario más probable una vez que la Reserva Federal de EE.UU. suba tipos es que las bolsas reaccionen al alza en los próximos seis meses. El posicionamiento alcista de los inversores de los últimos días está justificado históricamente.

En cuanto al Banco Central Europeo, otro de los factores que ha provocado las alzas de las bolsas los últimos días, hoy conocíamos las actas de su última reunión. Destacamos la afirmación de que deben volver a examinar en diciembre el grado de acomodación de la política monetaria, lo que en otras palabras viene a ser que incrementarán el programa QE en cuantía y/o extensión.

Evidentemente esta posibilidad ha gustado a los inversores. De hecho, es el motivo de las alzas tras los atentados de París según Peter Schiff, director ejecutivo de Euro Pacific Capital. "Los atentados han incrementado la posibilidad de que el BCE aumenta la QE", afirmaba.

Pocos datos macroeconómicos de importancia se han publicado. Lo más destacado la fuerte caída de las ventas minoristas en el Reino Unido en el mes de octubre, el buen dato de cuenta corriente de la euro zona en septiembre, y el buen dato de índice manufacturero de la Fed de Filadelfia del mes de noviembre.

En resumen, moderadas alzas en las bolsas europeas, con los inversores posicionándose para el rally final de año. ¿Lo tendremos? Desgraciadamente dependerá de si hay o nuevos atentados.

[Fenix]

"El juego de la Fed puede acabar provocando lágrimas en los inversores"
Peter Schiff
Jueves, 19 de Noviembre del 2015 - 13:10
Peter Schiff, director ejecutivo de Euro Pacific Capital, se muestra en una reciente entrevista a la CNBC crítico con la Reserva Federal y cree que está jugando a un juego muy peligroso que probablemente termine provocando lágrimas en los inversores de acciones.

"Creo que el juego de la Fed es muy peligroso porque pienso que la economía se está ya desacelerando y la Reserva Federal aún tiene los tipos a cero. No estoy convencido de que Yellen esté cerca de iniciar el fin de una década de ultra laxa política monetaria", afirma Shiff que cree que las palabras de los miembros de la Fed tienen el objetivo de preparar a los inversores.

¿Cómo saber si estamos en un mercado bajista?

Carlos Montero
Jueves, 19 de Noviembre del 2015 - 14:35:00

Cuando la mayoría de los inversores se dan cuenta de que estamos en un mercado bajista, ya es demasiado para minimizar las pérdidas. A menudo, los mercados bajistas comienzan mientras que el mercado alcista da sus últimos coletazos. Mark D. Cook, co-autor del libro, "Prepárese ahora y sobreviva al próximo mercado bajista", incluye 11 etapas que indican que el mercado bajista se acerca. Sin embargo, cada mercado bajista es diferente, así que considere estas como directrices, reglas no absolutas:

1. Subidas fallidas

La primera etapa de un mercado bajista incluye tramos alcistas que no se mantienen. En un gráfico esto se mostrara con una serie de mínimos más bajos. Esto le dice a los traders astutos que el mercado está débil y vulnerable, y es susceptible a un daño mayor.

2. No hay mucha participación y las subidas se producen con poco volumen

La siguiente etapa se produce cuando las subidas se dan en un entorno de bajo volumen. Esto es un indicio de que las principales instituciones que no están dispuestas a comprar. Tenga en cuenta que la mayoría de las instituciones compran o venden en manada, y si sus compañeros no están comprando, es poco probable que las instituciones realicen compras importantes. Un indicador que vigilar es el NYSE Tick, pero otros indicadores también mostrarán que la amplitud del mercado es débil, incluso cuando el mercado sube. Esta divergencia es una enorme bandera roja.

3. No hay rebote

Después de una corrección superior al 3%, el mercado debe ser capaz de recuperarse (corregir) por lo menos la mitad de los puntos perdidos. Si no puede, es otra señal de advertencia.

4. Los gráficos técnicos empeoran

El primero en identificar los problemas son los analistas técnicos, que ven mínimos más bajos en los gráficos, así como índices por debajo de sus medias móviles. Mientras tanto los inversores alcistas más confiados se mostrarán nerviosos, pero por lo general no se venden en esta etapa. En lugar de ello, aconsejan "comprar en la debilidad", "comprar con las caídas" - estrategias que funcionan en un mercado alcista. Los optimistas siguen esperanzados en que el mercado se va a recuperar, y que la Fed salvará al mercado del desastre.

5. Aceleración a la baja

En esta etapa, el mercado comienza a acelerar la caída. Los movimientos a la baja son rápidos, mientras que los rebotes son lentos y sin vida. Aumenta el volumen durante descensos, mientras que cae en los rebotes. Muchos inversores alcistas aún no venderán en esta etapa.


6. Correcciones de dos dígitos

En esta etapa, usted verá una clara tendencia bajista en los gráficos. Por ahora, las carteras se han reducido en un 15% o 20%, y algunos alcistas están pensando en vender. Con una corrección del 20%, los reembolsos en los fondos de inversión aumentan.

7. Las instituciones comienzan a vender

Las instituciones, conscientes de que los inversores individuales están retirando fondos, se ven obligados a aligerar posiciones. La complacencia que una vez impregnó el mercado se ha convertido en un pánico leve. Muchos inversores obstinados todavía no han recortado posiciones.

8. Cada vez hay menos noticias buenas

Las noticias económicas positivas, que fueron ovacionadas durante el mercado alcista, se ven con escepticismo en un mercado bajista. Los inversores sienten un pánico total ya que el mercado sigue bajando. Los alcistas más rebeldes mantienen sus posiciones. A los inversores se les dice que piensen en el largo plazo y recuerden que con el tiempo todos los mercados bajistas finalizan.

9. Se incrementa el volumen en los días bajistas

En los días bajistas, el volumen repunta. Los movimientos bajistas suelen durar entre 5 a 10 días, mientras que los rebotes entre 1 a 3 días. Después de un descenso del 20%, muchos creen que lo peor ha pasado, y ruegan que los bancos centrales salven el mercado.

10. Los alcistas son una minoría

Durante esta etapa, después de que los medios de comunicación confirmen que estamos en un mercado bajista, los inversores más optimistas desaparecen. Las malas noticias saltan a la primera plana de los medios. Aumenta la volatilidad y las fuertes caídas son frecuentes. Por ahora, el mercado ya ha caído un 30% o más.

11. Capitulación

En esta etapa, los alcistas capitulan. Después de que los inversores miren sus carteras, se dan cuenta de que no van a recuperar sus pérdidas en el corto plazo, por lo que venden en estado de pánico. El volumen es tres veces mayor de lo normal. El mercado esquizofrénico parece a punto de estallar. Algunas firmas financieras están al borde del colapso. El inversor minorista no quiere saber nada de la bolsa. En pocos meses, se vaporizan dos años de ganancias. Incluso muchos de las llamadas acciones seguras se hunden.

Es cierto que no hay ningún mercado bajista que siga exactamente un guión, pero es el escenario típico. Como no hay ninguna campana que suene cuando empiece un mercado bajista, hay que analizar los indicadores y las pistas que determinen cuando es probable que estemos al final de un mercado alcista. Una cosa es segura: los mercados bajistas son tan inevitables como los mercados alcistas, y cada seis o siete años, llegan con venganza.

Fuentes: Mark D. Cook, Michael Sincere (Marketwatch)
Lacartadelabolsa

[Fenix]

If The Economy Is Fine, Why Are So Many Hedge Funds, Energy Companies And Large Retailers Imploding?
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 09:12

If the U.S. economy really is in “great shape”, then why do all of the numbers keep telling us that we are in a recession? In 2008, stocks didn’t crash until well after the U.S. economy as a whole started crashing, and the same thing is apparently happening this time around as well.


Philly Fed Creeps Back Into Positive Despite Collapse In Prices Paid, Workweek
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 08:38

After 2 months of notably unusual negative prints, November's Philly Fed rose from -4.5 to +1.9 (the best MoM rise since June). Sadly, the survey's headline gains were driven by a big surge in 'hope' as the outlook surged from 36.7 to 43.4, as under the covers of the current business environment was a collapse in prices paid, further deterioration in new orders and shipments, and a plunge in average workweek.


WTI Tumbles Back Below $40, Goldman Warns Risk Of "Sharp Leg Lower"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 08:15

After an exuberantv-shaped recovery of hawkish fed minutes, WTI Crude (Dec contract) has tumbled back below $40 this morning following warnings from Goldmn Sachs of the potential for a "sharp leg lower" to $20 handle given expectations for warmer-than-normal weather this winter.

Goldman Releases Its Top 6 Trades For 2016... And The Three Biggest Risks
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 07:50

1. Top Trade #1: Long USD vs short EUR and JPY
2. Top Trade #2: Long US 10-year ‘Breakeven’ Inflation
3. Top Trade #3: Long MXN and RUB versus short ZAR and CLP.
4. Top Trade #4: Long EM ‘External Demand’ vs. Banks stocks
5. Top Trade #5: Tighter Spread between Italy and Germany Long Rates
6. Top Trade #6: Long large-cap US Banks relative to the overall S&P500

[Fenix]

This Wasn't Supposed To Happen
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 11:27

Bonds ain't buying The Buy-The-F##king-Paris-Attack-Dip rally in stocks...



Trump Open To ID Badges, Special Database For Muslims: "We're Going To Have To Do The Unthinkable"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 13:30

"And certain things will be done that we never thought would happen in this country in terms of information and learning about the enemy. And so we’re going to have to do certain things that were frankly unthinkable a year ago."



As Of Today, The Baltic Dry Freight Index Has Never Been Lower
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 13:01

Having fallen for 20 straight days, crushing the hopes and dreams of the mid-year bounce - and thoroughly breaking down from seasonally positive tendencies - The Baltic Dry Freight Index has collapsed to all-time (back to 1984) record lows. As on shipping broker exclaimed, “This market is looking like a disaster and the rates are a reflection of that. It is looking scary for the market and it doesn’t look like there is going to be any life in the market in the near term.”



House Passes Fed Transparency Bill; Obama Will Veto
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 12:14
Moments ago, the in a 241-185 vote, the House passed passed H.R. 3189, aka Fed Oversight Reform and Modernization Act. The bill would make changes to how the Fed conducts monetary policy and regulatory activities and would direct the Fed to take a rules-based approach to interest rate decisions; require audits of more Fed functions such as monetary policy; and place restrictions on its emergency lending powers. In other words, everything that the banks that are direct and indirect stakeholders in the Fed would fight to the death to prevent.

The new House speaker promptly applauded the passage. From Paul Ryan:

Today, the House passed H.R. 3189, the Fed Oversight Reform and Modernization Act. The bill would require the Federal Reserve to explain publicly its monetary policy, specifically how it sets interests rates and the country’s money supply. In response, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) issued the following statement:



"If the Federal Reserve explained to the public how it made its decisions, the American people would have greater confidence in them. Families could better plan for the future, invest their money wisely, and create opportunity for all of us. I thank Chairman Hensarling and the Financial Services Committee for offering this commonsense legislation."

The victory, however, was very hollow: the White House has repeatedly said Obama’s advisers would recommend veto of H.R. 3189, "which seeks to make changes to Fed operations, including how the independent agency conducts monetary policy and regulatory activities."

The Fed is independent? Interesting: read the following excerpt from the left-leaning NYT and decide just how independent the Fed is:

... in 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson, who wanted cheap credit to finance the Vietnam War and his Great Society, summoned Fed chairman William McChesney Martin to his Texas ranch. There, after asking other officials to leave the room, Johnson reportedly shoved Martin against the wall as he demanding that the Fed once again hold down interest rates. Martin caved, the Fed printed money, and inflation kept climbing until the early 1980s.

And then this, from Lady Bird Johnson, spoken to William McChesney Martin, on his arrival at the LBJ ranch": "I hope you have examined your conscience and you’re convinced you’re on the right track."

And that is just how "independent" the Fed has always been.

But back to the White House which knows that with Congress a joke since the crisis, its only branch of government is the money printer in the Marriner Eccles building: "Subjecting Fed’s “exercise of monetary policy authority to audits based on political whims of members of the Congress, of either party, threatens one of the central pillars of the nation’s financial system and economy,” White House budget office says in statement.

Which brings us to a tangent: every time a standing Fed chairman (or woman) is criticized before Congress their traditional response is that it is Congress that gave the emergency powers it now has to bail out anyone and everyone. Especially Fed member banks.

So what happens when Congress tries to change the law? Well... this:

Now think about this: A private bank cartel CREATED by Congress doesn't want Congress to authorize the GAO to audit them.

— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) November 19, 2015

[Fenix]

"This Isn't Going To End Well" - Junk Bonds Under Pressure
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 11:52

There are seemingly always “good reasons” why troubles in a sector of the credit markets are supposed to be ignored – or so people are telling us, every single time. Some still recall how the developing problems in the sub-prime sector of the mortgage credit market were greeted by officials and countless market observers in the beginning in 2007. Meanwhile, the foundation of the economy continues to look rotten (the newest round of Fed surveys has begun with another bomb and other manufacturing-related data continue to disappoint as well). This isn’t going to end well, if history is any guide.


The Fate Of Goldman's Global Growth Forecast Is In The Hands Of Just Three Countries
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 11:37

In 2016 just three countries will grow above Goldman's blended global average growth rate of 3.6%: India, China and Indonesia.

[Fenix]

The House Just Passed A Bill To 'Pause' The Syrian Refugee Program, Obama Will Veto
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 14:03

With 53% of Americans opposed to opening the nation’s borders to those fleeing the war-torn Middle Eastern nation, it is perhaps no surprise that The House just voted overwhelmingly to slap stringent - and difficult to implement - new screening procedures on refugees from Syria seeking resettlement. While 47 Democrats defied President Obama's; due to absences, the vote did not quite nullify the threat of veto, without which the bill would effectively suspend the entry of refugees into the US for months or years.



The Beginning Of The End For The Affordable Care Act? Largest US Health Insurer May Exit ObamaCare
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 14:13

Today we got confirmation that the spinning plates of the Affordable Care Act are finally falling down, when none other than the U.S.’s biggest health insurer, UnitedHealth, cut its 2015 earnings forecast with a warning that it was considering pulling out of Obamacare, just one month after saying it would expand its presence in the program.


The Most Important Question About ISIS That Nobody Is Asking
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 15:49

We wonder how long until someone finally asks the all important question regarding the Islamic State: who is the commodity trader breaching every known law of funding terrorism when buying ISIS crude, almost certainly with the tacit approval by various "western alliance" governments, and why is it that these governments have allowed said middleman to continue funding ISIS for as long as it has?



Why US Equities Are Rallying (In 1 Simple Chart)
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 15:45

One more time: It’s not Paris, Greece, China, Ebola, Fed rate-hike or not, etc... Nothing matters but OPEX...


Inflation, Unemployment Soar As Brazil Remains Trapped In Stagflationary Nightmare
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 14:48

Just a day after a dismal read on GDP, the latest data out of Brazil shows a spike in both inflation and unemployment, as the country's economic outlook continues to deteriorate at an alarming pace.



The Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, & Triffin's Paradox
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/19/2015 - 14:34

There is no way Fed policy can be win-win-win for all participants.

[Fenix]

This Is How GOLD Acted During Past Rising Rate Cycles
Submitted by Secular Investor on 11/19/2015 09:38 -0500


There we go again: gold investors are panicking as the price of gold dives lower.

Admittedly, the technical picture does not look very constructive. However, we have to put this into perspective. Gold in dollar terms may be under pressure, but gold in euro terms does not look that bad, on the contrary in fact.

Gold in euro is setting a chart pattern of higher lows and higher highs in the last couple of months. Even its 50 day moving average seems to be trending positively.

This picture is similar for most currencies, except the dollar.

However, the focus of the market is on gold in dollar, as the market is concerned about an interest rate hike, based on the 'narrative' that a rate hike is bad for gold.

But is this narrative correct? It wouldn't be the first time that the herd is proven wrong.

Contrary to the 'pundits' and 'writers' who make statements that the crowd wants to hear, we underpin our investigation based on historic facts and figures. In particular, we analyzed gold's reaction after interest rate hikes in the last decades (as of 1972, when gold started to trade freely).

You will be surpised about our findings!

The first increase of the Fed Funds Rate (the official term for interest rates, used by the Federal Reserve) took place between February 1972 and July 1974.

As you can see on the above chart, gold rose from approx. 40 USD/ounce to 180 USD/ounce (x 4!), as the interest rate increased from 3 to 13%.

The next period of interest rate hike(s) was between June 1977 and March 1980, which was a time characterized by an exceptionally high inflation rate.

Once again, the price of gold went sharply higher, from approx. 100 USD/ounce to 800 USD/ounce: an 8-fold increase!

That period was very volatile, as the Fed brought interest rates sharply down after peaking. Because of that, and the fact that inflation remained stubbornly high, the Fed had to increase rates between July 1980 and January 1981.

Gold remained in a trading channel, between 600 and 700 USD/ounce, which indicates that gold had 'sniffed' the fact that inflation was moderate.

Soon after, inflation started to soften, which gave the economy a significant boost. In that time period, the Fed intervened several times to avoid an economic overactivity.

The next interest rate hike took place between February 1983 and September 1984.

As of then, gold lost significant value: the price of the yellow metal declined from 500 to 350 USD/ounce, as the interest rate rose from 8.5% to 11.5%. Note that those were still relatively high interest rates, given historical averages, which points to the fact that centrale bankers were still concerned about inflation.

The next period of interest rate hikes is between September 1986 and April 1989.

Initially, the gold price reacted positively, as it rose from 400 to 500 USD/ounce, but as the central bank pushed interest rates aggressively higher in the second half of that period, the price of gold declined again to 400 USD.

That brings us to the 90's, a decade which was characterized by economic prosperity and low inflation. The first interest rate hike took place between December 1993 and June 1995.



This is another period which wasn't negative for gold, in the context of a rate hike, as the metal remained in a trading range between 375 and 395 USD/ounce.

Towards the end of the 90ies, the Fed had to intervene again to avoid a large scale economic heating driven by the technology boom.

In a matter of 1.5y, the interest rates almost doubled, but gold remained basically moving in a trading range between 250 and 330 USD/ounce.

After the dotcom bubble bursted, the Fed only started hiking rates again as of May 2004 until July 2006.

And right at the moment truly nobody believed gold would ever recover, the price of the metal rallied significantly during the second part of that period from 400 to an intermediate peak of 700 USD/ounce.

The above discussed periods highligh the most significant interest rate hikes after gold started to trade freely in August of 1971.

What can we learn from this?

* 3 periods with a positive impact on the price of gold
* 2 periods with a negative impact on the price of gold
* 3 periods in which gold traded sideways

That being said, how can any serious person conclude that gold will, without any doubt, trade lower in the next interest rate cycle? Statistically, we just proved that it was the case in only 2 of the 7 instances.

Moreover, the two periods in which gold was negatively impacted by interest rate hikes happened after a period of exceptionally high inflation.

When the economy was booming while disinflationary, gold remained flat with interest rate hikes. A well chosen entry point in a gold investment gave a very interesting yield.

That brings us to today. If the Fed is going to engage in a new interest rate cycle, they will do so to control rising inflation.

As we are exiting a period of exceptionally low interest rates with a moderate economic growth, present times are comparable to the time period 2004 to 2006.

As interest rates rose during those years, the price of gold followed that path higher as of the moment the Fed engaged in a monthly rate hike. During the last phase of rate hikes, gold started to rise even exponentially.

We believe that this path will be repeated in the future. We will most likely see a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, as gold's decline is about to stop when they hike.

We do not anticipate a spectactular rally in the short term as that is typically a move that unfolds in a later stage of a bull market. Also, it goes hand-in-hand with rising inflation concerns. Astute investors know this is a time to be accumulating the precious metals, not fleeing it.