Viernes 21/05/10 Alemania vota si no por el rescate

Los acontecimientos mas importantes en el mundo de las finanzas, la economia (macro y micro), las bolsas mundiales, los commodities, el mercado de divisas, la politica monetaria y fiscal y la politica como variables determinantes en el movimiento diario de las acciones. Opiniones, estrategias y sugerencias de como navegar el fascinante mundo del stock market.

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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 6:41 am

Las bolsas Europeas se deterioran mas ahora mas del 2% a la baja.

-75
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Notapor Victor VE » Vie May 21, 2010 6:42 am

German house approves euro rescue

Germany's lower house of parliament has approved the country's contribution to a 750bn euro ($938bn, £651bn) rescue deal for the eurozone.

The upper house is also expected to back a German contribution of up to 148bn euros.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has faced widespread domestic opposition to her support for measures to help Greece and other struggling EU economies.

But she has warned that the euro would be "in danger" without strong action.

The Bundestag, or German lower house, voted by 319 votes to 73 in favour of Germany's participation in the bail-out, with 195 abstentions.

Two opposition parties abstained and one voted against.

The BBC's Steve Rosenberg in Berlin says it was hardly a convincing victory for Mrs Merkel, who has come under attack at home and abroad for her handling of the financial crisis.

Without cross-party support the German leader will struggle to secure public backing for bailing out Germany's neighbours, he says.

Bail-out plans for Greece are already thought to have contributed to a defeat for her centre-right coalition in a key state election in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) earlier this month.
Markets fall

The vote on the package, which is designed to shore up the finances of struggling eurozone countries, comes as an EU task force of finance ministers is to meet in Brussels later to discuss ways to prevent a repeat of the economic crisis in Greece.

The ministers are expected to propose changes to EU budget rules to tighten up financial regulation.

European markets fell after opening on Friday amid fears that the region's debt crisis could spread.

As Mrs Merkel tried to gather support for Germany's contribution to the European bail-out fund earlier this week, German regulators announced a unilateral ban on some types of short-selling.

The ban covers "naked" short-selling, which occurs when a trader sells a financial instrument that has not yet been borrowed.

The restrictions also cover the use of credit derivatives to bet on a fall in the value of the debt of a eurozone government.

Germany angered other EU nations by acting alone on the ban, which triggered a fall in stock markets and the euro.

Mrs Merkel has also called for tougher regulation of banks and financial markets ahead of next month's G20 summit in Canada.

The eurozone's leading economies, Germany and France, have been divided over how to deal with the debt crisis, though French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday he had "no disagreements" with Mrs Merkel.
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Notapor Victor VE » Vie May 21, 2010 6:42 am

Abbott to Buy Piramal’s India Unit for $3.72 Billion (Update1)

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Abbott Laboratories will buy Piramal Healthcare Ltd.’s branded generic-medicine unit in India for $3.72 billion, becoming the country’s biggest drugmaker and tapping into a market expected to more than double by 2015.

Abbott said it will pay $2.12 billion initially and $400 million annually for four years from 2011 for the unit, which sells retail-ready pharmaceuticals in India, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The Abbott Park, Illinois-based company will pay cash for the transaction, expected to close in the second half of this year.

The acquisition announced today will be the second-largest takeover in India’s health-care industry and build on Abbott’s purchases in emerging markets. India’s drug-industry revenue will more than double by 2015 from almost $8 billion estimated this year, Abbott said.

“This is certainly not the last deal that you will see in India given that the country is poised to become one of the biggest pharmaceutical markets in the world,” said Nitin Agarwal, an analyst at IDFC Securities Ltd. in Mumbai, who rates Piramal “outperform.”

Piramal will repay 13 billion rupees ($277 million) of debt using proceeds from the sale and make a special dividend, Chairman Ajay Piramal said at a briefing in Mumbai. The proceeds will incur a 22 percent capital gains tax to be paid to the Indian government, he said.

Piramal dropped 12 percent to close at 502.75 rupees in Mumbai trading. Abbott India Ltd. gained 3.4 percent to 1,095.80 rupees, while India’s benchmark Sensitive Index lost 0.5 percent.

Standalone Business

Abbott plans to operate the Piramal unit as a standalone business reporting to its so-called established products division, Melissa Brotz, a spokeswoman for the U.S. drugmaker, said in a telephone interview.

The unit, called Healthcare Solutions, makes and sells generic medicines for conditions including respiratory and heart disease in India. Piramal’s other businesses include contract- manufacturing and drug-ingredient production. Sales at the Piramal division making branded generics rose 25 percent to 20 billion rupees in the year ended March 31, the company said on May 7. The unit accounted for more than half of the company’s total full-year revenue.

The price values the unit at nine times sales, Ajay Piramal said.

“I don’t think we were in a position to take it global. A company like Abbott has the strength and aspirations to do that,” he said. “There aren’t too many markets growing at 25 percent annually and it’s a good opportunity” for Abbott to be in India, he said.
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Notapor JorgeCDM » Vie May 21, 2010 6:47 am

Otra vez, se avisora un pesimo dia.

Ojo!! Hoy nuestra Bolsa podría entrar en rendimiento negativo en lo que va del año. Al cierre de ayer, nuestra Bolsa acumula un +0,3% en lo que va del año.
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 6:56 am

Citi hizo lo mismo que Goldman, podria ser sujeto de una investigacion y podria ser acusada tambien.
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 7:15 am

Euro up 1.2513

-78

El euro ha subido con la noticia de Alemania pero las bolsas Europeas han empeorado desde entonces.
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Notapor Victor VE » Vie May 21, 2010 7:34 am

admin escribió:Citi hizo lo mismo que Goldman, podria ser sujeto de una investigacion y podria ser acusada tambien.


Será motivo para esperarla en US$2.00.
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 7:35 am

Los yields siguen bajando ahora en 3.13%

Libor sigue subiendo peligrosamente indicando que los bancos no se prestan dinero en Europa.

El oro va perdiendo $14

Euro up 1.2518

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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 7:40 am

Alemania aprobo el rescate. Las dos casas aprobaron el plan.

-79

Euro up 1.2535
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 7:53 am

Editorial del WSJ

El miedo regresa

Las politicas de Europa estan causando panico

Si alguien penso la semana pasada que el anuncio del rescate a Europa calmaria a los mercados, ha tenido un rudo despertar, especialmente despues de la caida del Dow Jones del 3.6% en un dia, nunca se pone mas horrible que una caida de esa magnitud, el Nasdaq perdio 4.1%

Aun mas terrible es el retorno del miedo a los mercados, con el interbak riesgo haciendose mas grande y retornando a sus niveles de la primera del 2009.

Los inversionistas estan abandonando a los activos riesgosos y se estan posicionando en la seguridad del dolar y los bonos de este gobierno, lo que significa que menos credito queda disponible en el sistema y se toma menos riesgo y los negocios no pueden financiarse.

La caida del euro ha aumentado la busqueda de dolares y el rapido exchange rate perjudica las decisiones de inversion y movimiento del capital mas de lo que estamos dispuestos a aceptar.

Alimentar el panico financiero es la politica del panico especialmente en Europa. En lugar de mantenerse calmados, los lideres politicos estan tomando medidas para restringir y prohibir short sales, prohibicion de hedge funds y proponiento aumento de impuestos a todos los euros que se mueven fuera de los limites preferidos de los politicos Europeos. Todo esto solo acelera el vuelo a los activos mas seguros. El ministro de finanzas de Alemania deberia tratar de no decir nada por un dia, y vera como el euro sube.

Con la demanda de dolares aumentando, el Fed tendra que proveer liquidez para prevenir una mayor crisis.

El ECB enfrentara aun mayores retos y presiones para seguir la politica del Fed de cero intereses y parar de esterilizar las compras de los bonos de la zona Europea, expandiendo la base monetaria. Estos son los riesgos que corre el EDB de indenpendencia y credibilidad, pero el ECB no sera capaz de evitar que el panico por el euro aumente.

El verdadero problema es el colapso de las politicas economicas del modelo Keynesian de politica de burbuja.

El gasto irresponsable de los gobiernos en los ultimos dos anios ahora se ha tornado en una crisis de deuda soberana que ha empezado en Europa y nadie sabra donde terminara. Los magos del IMF que eran los que promovian el gasto y mas estimulos durante el anio pasado han dado una vuelta de 180 grados y ahora estan recomendando aumento de impuestos, recorte de gastos ---cuando en realidad lo que se necesita es mas austeridad, recorte de impuestos y politicas a favor del crecimiento de la economia.

Nosotros hemos estado optimistas sobre el crecimiento y recuperacion de la economia de US y su fortaleza para enfrentar la crisis Europea pero los mercados nos estan diciendo que nos preparemos para el mal clima que se nos viene.



The Fear Returns
Europe's policy panic is feeding another financial panic.

Anyone who thought that last week's IMF-EU bailout would calm markets has had a rude awakening this week, especially after yesterday's global selloff in stocks. It rarely gets uglier than a 3.6% one-day fall in the Dow and 4.1% on the Nasdaq.

Even more ominous is the return of fear in the credit markets, with interbank risk spreads hitting their widest levels since spring 2009. Investors are fleeing riskier assets and moving back to the relative safety of the dollar and U.S. Treasurys, which means less credit available to finance business and risk-taking. The plunge of the euro has exacerbated this flight to the greenback, and the rapid exchange-rate movements of recent weeks are always more disruptive to investment decisions and capital flows than conventional economic wisdom cares to admit.

Feeding the financial panic is the policy panic, especially in Europe. Instead of keeping cool, political leaders are restricting short sales, banning hedge funds, and proposing to raise taxes on any euro that moves somewhere that politicians don't like. All of this only speeds the flight out of euro assets. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble should try not speaking for a day, and see if the euro rises.

With demand for dollars increasing, the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to keep providing liquidity to prevent even greater market overshooting. The European Central Bank will face greater pressure both to follow the Fed to near-zero percent interest rates and to stop sterilizing its purchases of euro zone bonds, thus expanding the money supply. These are risky steps for the ECB's independence and credibility, but the central bank may not be able to resist if this euro panic grows.

The underlying problem is the collapse of the Keynesian policy bubble. The government spending blowout of the last two years has now turned into a sovereign debt rout, starting in Europe and ending who knows where. The IMF wizards who were urging more and more "stimulus" spending through last year have done a 180 and are now frantically advising tax increases and spending cuts—i.e., more austerity, rather than tax cuts or other pro-growth reforms.

We've been optimistic that the U.S. recovery could withstand this European panic, but markets are telling us to prepare for heavier weather.
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 7:54 am

No hay nada mejor en el mundo que el WSJ. Realmente son una luz en tanta oscuridad.
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 7:56 am

Alemania ha aprobado el rescate y las bolsas Europeas han reaccionado de manera negativa ahora en sus niveles mas bajos de la jornada.
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 7:58 am

Ayer en la clase nos moriamos de la risa leyendo a un analista que decia que la crisis Europea es como una pelicula de terror y de las malas, cuando se piensa que el monstruo ha muerto, sigue regresando una y otra vez, no hay como matarlo.

Realmente eso es lo que esta pasando con Europa.

Euro up 1.2567
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 8:01 am

Para los que invierten en el Peru especialmente en mineras, hay que tener en cuenta que el aumento del 40% a las grandes mineras Australianas va a perjudicar el mercado del sector en general, ya se habla de un contagio de aumento de impuestos desde Canada a Peru. Por lo menos eso es lo que anticipan los analistas. Chile los aumento por dos anios para ayudar a la reconstruccion del pais.

Libor sube a 0.50%, esta es la peor senial del problema Europeo.
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Notapor admin » Vie May 21, 2010 8:09 am

Futures cu up 3.0375
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