por admin » Jue Abr 14, 2011 7:05 am
Obama sigue en su campania de subirle los impuestos a los que ganan mas de $250,000 (juntos entre esposo y esposa) Este insistente deseo de subir los impuestos, el cual repitio ayer en su discurso, no solucionara el problema fiscal ed US.
Estudios preliminares del Congressional Budget Office (CBO) proyecta que el gasto federal bajo el presupuesto del 2012 de Obama promediara un aumento de 23.3% en la proxima decada...mas del 19.7% en el 2007 y 18.2% en el 2001.
Asi Obama lograra convencer al Congreso de aumentar todos los impuestos que propone, sumado a los impuestos incuidos en el ObamaCare, el CBO encontro que todavia habrian deficits del 4.8% del GDP.
La deuda publica se duplicara bajo Obama, dijo el CBO, aumentara de $10.4 trillones (69% del GDP) al final del 2011 a $20.8 trillones (87% del GDP) a finales edl 2021, agreaganto $9.5 trillones a la deuda de la nacion entre el 2012 y 2021.
Y asi, tan enormes como son, estos deficits y es estimado de la deuda asume que los impuestos mas altos que propone Obama no hara danio a la economia, que los intereses usualmente bajos se mantendran y que la economia eveitara la recesion por 12 anios. Esas suposiciones requieren que los contribuyentes se comporten de manera muy diferente en el futuro.
Los estimados de los ingresos son aun mas increibles. De acuerdo a la Office of Management and Budget, el total de ingresos se supone que excederan el 19% del GDP despues del 2015, aumentando al 20% para el 2021 - un nivel que brevemente se alcanzo solamente dos veces la primera fue durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial (1944-45) y durante el pico de la era tecnologica en el 2000. Aun mas, esos ingresos sin precedentes vendran de los impuestos a los individuos, lo cual no va a ocurrir.
Y no es que no hemos tratado altos impuestos antes. De 1951 a 1963, el impuesto mas bajo fue entre el 20% y 22% y el mas alto fue entre el 91% y el 92%. El impuesto mas alto a las ganancias de capital fue de casi el 40% entre 1976 y 1977. Aparte de las fluctuaciones ciclicas, el porcentaje de pago de impuestos por parte de los individuos ha permanecido en el 8% del PBI (GDP)
Los impuestos individuales recolectaron un 7.8% del PBI entre 1952 y 1979 cuando el impuesto mas alto se rebajo al 70% del 92%, el 8% del PBI entre 1993 y 1996 cuando el impuesto mas alto era 39.6% y 8.1% desde 1988 a 1990 cuando el impuesto al individuo mas alto era del 28%. Obama espera que aumentando los impuestos aumentara la recoleccion de impuestos arriba del 9% del PBI, esto se ha tratado por seis decadas y siempre ha fracasado.
Solamente los impuestos provenientes de los individuos sobrepasaron el 9% ocho veces en la historia del pais - durante la Segunda Guerra MUndial (9.4% en 1944), las recessiones del 1969-70, 1981-82 y 1991-92, y durante el boom tecnologico entre 1998-2001. Y eso fue porque el PBI total bajo debido a las recesiones.
La situcion entre 1997 y el 2000 fue unica. Fue de 9.6% por razones que lo mas probable es que no se repitan. Los precios del Nasdaq subieron cinco veces su valor y coincidieron con la proliferacion de las opciones de acciones, las cuales fueron otorgadas al 11% de las familias para el 2001 y con la reduccion de los impuestos a las ganancais de capital del 28% al 20% ayudo a que los individuos realizaran sus ganancias para pagar menos impuestos. La recoleccion de impuestos de ganancias de capital subieron al 10.8% de todos los impuestos recolectado a los individuos en 1997 y 13% para ell anio 2000. Este inesperado aumento de recoleccion de impuestos ocurrio durante el segundo gobierno de Clinton y como consecuencia a la reduccion de impuestos a las ganancias de capital.
La realizacion de ganancias son generalmente entre el 13% y 22% entre los individuos de mayores ingresos que son el 1% de los contribuyentes entre 1988 y 2006 cuando los impuestos a las ganancias de capital fueron del 28% pero esa fraccion cambio al 29% y 32% entre 1998 y el 2000 cuando las ganancias de capital cayeron al 20%
Decir que no es justo el rebajar las ganancias al capital sugiere que es mas justo que los afluentes inversionistas se sienten en sus ganancias no realizadas, moralmente es decir que un impuesto no pagado es superior a recolectar billones provenientes de los impuestos a las ganancias de capital realizadas.
Estan confudidos lo que piensan en los medios de comunicacion que la diferencia entre el gasto del gobierno y la recoleccion de los impuestos puede disminuirse simplemente aumentando los impuestos a las ganancias de capital y dividendos.
En una reciente historia de Bloomberg que dice que mas ganas, menos pagas, reporto que para los que tienen dinero esta podria ser la mejor oportunidad para pagar menos impuestos desde 1930... para los 400 Americanos que tienen el mas alto ingreso bruto ajustado, lo que realmente pagan cayo del 30% en 1995 al 17% en el 2007 de acuerdo al IRS.
Entre los 400 americanos que pagan mas impuestos (que muy pocas veces son los mismos) el promedio de impuesos bajo 22.3% en el 2000 cuando las ganancias de capital bajaron del 29.9% al 20% en 1995 cuando las ganancias de capital eran del 28%. Pero el IRS reporta que los impuestos provenientes de ganancias de capital de los 400 individuos se duplicaron despues que los impuestos a las ganancias de capital a un total de $11.8 billones en el 2000 de $5.2 billones en 1995 medido en 1990 dolares.
Los mismo paso en el 2003, cuando las ganancias de capital fueron reducidas al 15%.
Asi que decir que los recortes de impuestos para los ricos no es justo es simplemente absurdo y mas absurdo aun decir que el deficit fue causado por esos recortes. (eso es lo que dijo Obama ayer)
El porcentaje de impuestos recolectados a los individuos ha sido consistentemente el 8% del PBI y 18% en total (todo tipo de impuestos) Parece que la unica manera confiable de aumentar la recoleccion de impuestos es aumentando el crecimiento del PBI>
Mr. Reynolds is a senior fellow with the Cato Institute and the author of "Income and Wealth" (Greenwood Press 2006).
Obama's Soak-the-Rich Tax Hikes Won't Work
Income tax revenues have been remarkably stable at 8% of GDP, regardless of tax rates. The way to increase revenue is to grow the economy..
By ALAN REYNOLDS
President Obama's response to congressional efforts to curb runaway federal spending is to emphasize, once again, his resolve to greatly increase tax rates on married couples whose joint incomes are above $250,000. This insistent desire to raise taxes—which he repeated in a speech yesterday while complaining about "trillions of dollars in . . . tax cuts that went to every millionaire and billionaire in the country"—is a distraction. It won't solve our nation's fiscal problem.
Preliminary estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) project that federal spending under the president's 2012 budget plan would average 23.3% over the coming decade—up from 19.7% in 2007 and 18.2% in 2001.
Even if the president could persuade Congress to enact all of his proposed tax increases, in addition to surtaxes already included in ObamaCare, the CBO finds we would still face endless budget deficits averaging 4.8% of GDP.
"Federal debt held by the public would double under the President's budget," says the CBO, "growing from $10.4 trillion (69% of GDP) at the end of 2011 to $20.8 trillion (87% of GDP) at the end of 2021, adding $9.5 trillion to the nation's debt from 2012 to 2021."
And yet, enormous as they are, these deficit and debt estimates assume that the higher tax rates called for under the president's 2012 budget plan do no harm to the economy, that interest rates stay unusually low, and that the economy avoids recession for a dozen years. Those assumptions require taxpayers to behave much differently than they ever have before.
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Martin Kozlowski
.The revenue estimates are even more unbelievable. According to the Office of Management and Budget, total revenues would supposedly exceed 19% of GDP after 2015, rising to 20% by 2021—a level briefly reached only at the height of World War II (1944-45) and the pinnacle of the tech-stock boom (2000). Moreover, these unprecedented revenues would supposedly come from the individual income tax, which is even less plausible.
It is not as though we have never tried high tax rates before. From 1951 to 1963, the lowest tax rate was 20% to 22% and the highest was 91% to 92%. The top capital gains tax rate approached 40% in 1976-77. Aside from cyclical swings, however, the ratio of individual income tax receipts to GDP has always remained about 8% of GDP.
The individual income tax brought in 7.8% of GDP from 1952 to 1979 when the top tax rate ranged from 70% to 92%, 8% of GDP from 1993 to 1996 when the top tax rate was 39.6%, and 8.1% from 1988 to 1990 when the highest individual income tax rate was 28%. Mr. Obama's hope that raising only the highest tax rates could keep individual tax receipts well above 9% of GDP has been repeatedly tested for more than six decades. It has always failed.
Federal revenue from the individual income tax exceeded 9% of GDP only eight times in U.S. history—during World War II (9.4% in 1944), the recessions of 1969-70, 1981-82 and 1991-92, and the tech-stock boom-bust of 1998-2001. Revenues were a high share of GDP during the three recessions because GDP fell.
The situation of 1997-2000 was unique. Individual income tax revenues reached an unprecedented 9.6% of GDP from 1997 to 2000 for reasons quite unlikely to be repeated. An astonishing quintupling of Nasdaq stock prices coincided with an extraordinary proliferation of stock options, which the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances found were granted to 11% of U.S. families by 2001, and with a reduction in the capital gains tax to 20% from 28%, which encouraged much greater realization of taxable gains through stock sales. Revenues from the capital gains tax rose to 10.8% of all individual income tax receipts in 1997 and 13% by 2000. The unexpected revenue windfalls in President Bill Clinton's second term were largely a consequence of lower tax rates on capital gains.
Using IRS data, Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics and Emmanuel Saez of the University of California at Berkeley have estimated that realized capital gains accounted for just 13%-22% of reported income among the top 1% of taxpayers from 1988 to 2006, when gains were taxed at 28%—but that fraction swiftly reached 29%-32% in 1998-2000, when the capital gains tax fell to 20%.
The average tax rate of such top taxpayers was mechanically diluted by the greatly increased realizations of capital gains after 1997 and 2003, since a larger share of reported income consisted of capital gains. Yet the amount of taxes paid by top taxpayers reached record highs for the same reason—there was more revenue to be had from taxing many gains at a low rate than from taxing fewer gains a high rate. Nobody can be forced to sell assets in taxable accounts. To complain that a low tax on realized capital gains is "unfair" is to suggest it would be fairer for affluent investors to sit on unrealized gains, as though an unpaid tax is morally superior to one that collects billions.
As a result of the conventional confusion between tax rates and revenues, some stories in the media have abetted the delusion that the huge gap between spending and likely revenues could be narrowed by simply increasing the highest tax rates on capital gains and/or dividends.
A recent cover story in Bloomberg Businessweek by Jesse Drucker, "The More You Make, the Less You Pay," reported that, "For the well-off, this could be the best tax day since the early 1930s. . . . For the 400 U.S. taxpayers with the highest adjusted gross income, the effective federal income tax rate—what they actually pay—fell from almost 30% in 1995 to just under 17% in 2007, according to the IRS."
Among the top 400 taxpayers (rarely the same people from one year to the next), the average tax rate fell to 22.3% in 2000, when the capital gains tax was 20%, from 29.9% in 1995 when the capital gains tax was 28%. But that same IRS report also shows that real tax revenues from the top 400 more than doubled after the capital gains tax fell, rising to $11.8 billion in 2000 from $5.2 billion in 1995, measured in 1990 dollars.
The same thing happened after 2003, when the capital gains tax was further reduced to 15%. The average tax rate of the top 400 fell to 16.6% in 2007 from 22.9% in 2002. Even though there was no stock market boom as in 1997-2000, real revenues of the top 400 nevertheless doubled again—to $14.5 billion in 2007 from $6.9 billion in 2002. Instead of paying less when the capital gains tax rate went down in 1997 and 2003, the top 400 instead paid much, much more.
The trendy talking point of blaming projected deficits on "tax cuts for the rich" is flatly absurd.
Both individual income taxes and overall federal taxes have long been a surprisingly constant percentage of GDP—8% and 18%, respectively— regardless of top tax rates on salaries, small business and investors. It follows that the only reliable way to raise real federal revenues over time is to raise real GDP.
Mr. Reynolds is a senior fellow with the Cato Institute and the author of "Income and Wealth" (Greenwood Press 2006).