por admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:32 am
El downgrade de Obama
La verdadera razon por la que US podria perder su rating AAA
Las mismas agencias que ayudaron a crear la crisis financiera que provoco la recesion ahora nos dicen que US podria perder su rating AAA, el cual mantiene desde 1917. Con todo lo ironicamente doloroso que es no hay razon para molestarse con el mensajero. La verdadera razon es la clase politica del pais, especialmente el presidente que ha gobernado este historico colapso de credibilidad fiscal.
Los muchachos y Moody's estan citando el riesgo del default el 2 de Agosto como el proximo motivo para la advertencia. Pero los americanos deben entender que el limite de la deuda es solamente una senial. La verdadera arma o razon es el aumento indiscriminado e irresponsable del gasto durante los ultimos tres anios y la muestra de que Washington no tiene lo que se necesita para reducirlo en los anios venideros.
Respecto al gasto, es importantes hacer un llamado de que extraordinario han sido estos ultimos tres anios. Nunca hemos visto algo parecido desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Nada se le acerca o parece. El gasto aumento al inicio de la Gran Sociedad, la recesion del 74-75 ed alli un aumento de 23.5% con la recesion de 1982 y el presupuesto de defensa de Reagan.
De alli, el gasto disminuye, mas rapidamente durante los 90s debido al recorte del presupuesto de defensa al 3% en el 2000 comparado con el 6.2% del PBI durante el gobierno de Reagan en 1986. El primer Bush vio el gasto aumentar hasta el 20% del PBI, y de alli nunca fue mas del 20.8% en el 2008.
Y despues viene Obama, en liga con el congreso de Nancy Pelosi. Con la excusa de la recesion, los democratas concientemente han hecho explotar el balance nacional, aumentando el gasto hasta el 25% en el 2009, el nivel mas alto desde 1945 (Hasta en 1946, con millones todavia en las fuerzas militares, el gasto solo fue el 24.8% del PBI, En 1947 cayo a 14.8%) Y aunque la recesion termino en Junio del 2009, el gasto en el 2010 ha permanecido alto casi al 24% y este anio se acerca nuevamente al 25%.
Esa es la principal razon por la que la deuda publica ha subido del 40.3% en el 2008, a 53.5% en el 2009, 62.2% en el 2010 y se estima que sera 72% este anio, y se espera que siga suiendo en el futuro. Estos son niveles no vistos desde la guerra de Korea, y muchos analistas piensan que la deuda de US sera el 90% o el 100% del GDP.
El Congreso es responsable de todo el dinero que se ha desperdiciado, resultando en muy poca creacion de empleo y la mas lenta recuperacion economicas desde 1930. Pero en el sistema politico de US, los presidentes deben actuar como adultos. Cuando ellos abdican, los adolescentes invitan a sus amigos y se gastan toda la herencia.
Ahora el presidente esta diciendo que ha encontrado su virtud de disciplina fiscal, pero dense cuenta de como ha peleado contra la Casa de Representantes para no recortar el gasto. Primero, el ha usado la amenaza del cierre del gobierno, despues ha sentado a Paul Ryan en primera fila para dar su discurso y llamar su propuesta de recorte de gasto anti-americano.
Ahora Obama esta usando el limite de la deuda para evitar controlar el gasto y amentar impuestos. Su propuesta de recorte: $2 billones.
Y los programas de beneficios sociales no se reforman . ni se recortan, ni se tocan, especialmente el ObamaCare a pesar del $1 trillon de gasto nuevo en los proximos anios y creciendo aun mas rapido despues.
Y ahora tenemos el inevitable choque debido al limite de la deuda, el cual debe aumentarse para pagar por todo esto. Y Obama esta culpando a los republicanos de irresposanbles porque no quieren subir impuestos en retorno a las promesas de que en un futuro recortara modestamente el gasto. Y algunas personas se la creen.
Nosotros hemos dicho que seria tonto que los republicanos aceptaran la trampa de Obama del limite de la deuda para despues ser culpados por el mismo por la caida financiera, incluyendo un posible downgrade. Asi la crisis de la deuda se solucione, la amenaza del recorte del rating de deuda continuara y crecera hasta que Obama cambie sus politicas, o los Americanos cambien de presidente.
The Obama Downgrade
The real reason the U.S. could lose its AAA rating
So the credit-rating agencies that helped to create the financial crisis that led to a deep recession are now warning that the U.S. could lose the AAA rating it has had since 1917. As painfully ironic as this is, there's no benefit in shooting the messengers. The real culprit is the U.S. political class, especially the President who has presided over this historic collapse of fiscal credibility.
Moody's and the boys are citing the risk of a default on August 2 as the proximate reason for their warning. But Americans should understand that the debt ceiling is merely the trigger. The gun is the spending boom of the last three years and the prospect that Washington lacks the political will to reduce it in the years to come.
On spending, it is important to recall how extraordinary the blowout of the last three years has been. We've seen nothing like it since World War II. Nothing close. The nearby chart tracks federal outlays as a share of GDP since 1960. The early peaks coincide with the rise of the Great Society, the recession of 1974-75, and then a high of 23.5% with the recession of 1982 and the Reagan defense buildup.
From there, spending declines, most rapidly during the 1990s as defense outlays fell to 3% of GDP in 2000 from its Reagan peak of 6.2% in 1986. The early George W. Bush years saw spending bounce up to a plateau of roughly 20% of GDP, but no more than 20.7% as recently as 2008.
Then came the Obama blowout, in league with Nancy Pelosi's Congress. With the recession as a rationale, Democrats consciously blew up the national balance sheet, lifting federal outlays to 25% in 2009, the highest level since 1945. (Even in 1946, with millions still in the military, spending was only 24.8% of GDP. In 1947 it fell to 14.8%.) Though the recession ended in June 2009, spending in 2010 stayed high at nearly 24%, and this year it is heading back toward 25%.
This is the main reason that federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP has climbed from 40.3% in 2008, to 53.5% in 2009, 62.2% in 2010 and an estimated 72% this year, and is expected to keep rising in the future. These are heights not seen since the Korean War, and many analysts think U.S. debt will soon hit 90% or 100% of GDP.
Congress is responsible for the way so much of this spending was wasted, resulting in little job creation and the slowest economic recovery since the 1930s. But in the U.S. political system, Presidents are supposed to be the fiscal adults. When they abdicate, the teenagers invite over their special interest friends and blow the inheritance.
The President is now claiming to have found fiscal virtue, but notice how hard he has fought House Republicans as they've sought to abate the spending boom. First he used the threat of a government shutdown to whittle the fiscal 2011 spending cuts down to very little. Then he invited Paul Ryan to sit in the front row for a speech while he called his House budget un-American.
Now Mr. Obama is using the debt-ceiling debate as a battering ram not to control spending but to command a tax increase. We're told the White House list of immediate budget savings, the ones that matter most because they are enforceable by the current Congress, are negligible. His offer for immediate domestic nondefense discretionary cuts: $2 billion.
As for Mr. Obama's proposed entitlement cuts, they are all nibbling around the edges of programs that are growing far faster than inflation. He's offering few reforms that would make a difference in the long run. Oh, and ObamaCare is untouchable, despite its $1 trillion in new spending over the next several years, growing even faster after that.
So now we have the inevitable showdown over the debt limit, which must be raised to pay for all of this spending. And Mr. Obama is blaming Republicans for being irresponsible because they won't raise taxes in return for promises of modest future spending restraint. And some people even fall for it.
We've said we think it would be foolish of Republicans to walk into Mr. Obama's debt-limit trap and let him blame them for the financial fallout, including a possible credit downgrade. But this is not because we think they will deserve the blame. Even if this debt-ceiling crisis passes, the threat of a credit downgrade will continue and grow until Mr. Obama changes his policies, or Americans change Presidents.