Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el limit

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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor El_Diez » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:01 am

En el programa de Cecilia Valenzuela se dijo que Gana Perú habría invitado al gobierno de Irán a la toma de mando de Ollanta Humala, … ..
"No está derrotado quien no triunfa, sino quien no lucha."
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:04 am

El_Diez escribió:En el programa de Cecilia Valenzuela se dijo que Gana Perú habría invitado al gobierno de Irán a la toma de mando de Ollanta Humala, … ..


Dime con quien andas, te dire quien eres. Seguramente que todos los terroristas seran exonerados y considerados heroes de la patria en el Peru.
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor El_Diez » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:07 am

Lo peor es que de ser cierta esta invitación al gobierno de Irán, podría dañar las buenas relaciones que tiene el Perú con EEUU .. .
"No está derrotado quien no triunfa, sino quien no lucha."
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor El_Diez » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:23 am

En el mismo programa de Cecilia Valenzuela entrevistaron a un analista muy informado quien dijo muchas cosas pero una de las cosas que termino por desmoralizarme mas fue cuando dijo que un año de gobierno del izquierdista Ollanta Humala le va a costar al Perú 2 años revertirlo..... .. ……que duro castigo para este país,
Última edición por El_Diez el Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:32 am, editado 1 vez en total
"No está derrotado quien no triunfa, sino quien no lucha."
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:32 am

El downgrade de Obama
La verdadera razon por la que US podria perder su rating AAA

Las mismas agencias que ayudaron a crear la crisis financiera que provoco la recesion ahora nos dicen que US podria perder su rating AAA, el cual mantiene desde 1917. Con todo lo ironicamente doloroso que es no hay razon para molestarse con el mensajero. La verdadera razon es la clase politica del pais, especialmente el presidente que ha gobernado este historico colapso de credibilidad fiscal.

Los muchachos y Moody's estan citando el riesgo del default el 2 de Agosto como el proximo motivo para la advertencia. Pero los americanos deben entender que el limite de la deuda es solamente una senial. La verdadera arma o razon es el aumento indiscriminado e irresponsable del gasto durante los ultimos tres anios y la muestra de que Washington no tiene lo que se necesita para reducirlo en los anios venideros.

Respecto al gasto, es importantes hacer un llamado de que extraordinario han sido estos ultimos tres anios. Nunca hemos visto algo parecido desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Nada se le acerca o parece. El gasto aumento al inicio de la Gran Sociedad, la recesion del 74-75 ed alli un aumento de 23.5% con la recesion de 1982 y el presupuesto de defensa de Reagan.

De alli, el gasto disminuye, mas rapidamente durante los 90s debido al recorte del presupuesto de defensa al 3% en el 2000 comparado con el 6.2% del PBI durante el gobierno de Reagan en 1986. El primer Bush vio el gasto aumentar hasta el 20% del PBI, y de alli nunca fue mas del 20.8% en el 2008.

Y despues viene Obama, en liga con el congreso de Nancy Pelosi. Con la excusa de la recesion, los democratas concientemente han hecho explotar el balance nacional, aumentando el gasto hasta el 25% en el 2009, el nivel mas alto desde 1945 (Hasta en 1946, con millones todavia en las fuerzas militares, el gasto solo fue el 24.8% del PBI, En 1947 cayo a 14.8%) Y aunque la recesion termino en Junio del 2009, el gasto en el 2010 ha permanecido alto casi al 24% y este anio se acerca nuevamente al 25%.

Esa es la principal razon por la que la deuda publica ha subido del 40.3% en el 2008, a 53.5% en el 2009, 62.2% en el 2010 y se estima que sera 72% este anio, y se espera que siga suiendo en el futuro. Estos son niveles no vistos desde la guerra de Korea, y muchos analistas piensan que la deuda de US sera el 90% o el 100% del GDP.

El Congreso es responsable de todo el dinero que se ha desperdiciado, resultando en muy poca creacion de empleo y la mas lenta recuperacion economicas desde 1930. Pero en el sistema politico de US, los presidentes deben actuar como adultos. Cuando ellos abdican, los adolescentes invitan a sus amigos y se gastan toda la herencia.

Ahora el presidente esta diciendo que ha encontrado su virtud de disciplina fiscal, pero dense cuenta de como ha peleado contra la Casa de Representantes para no recortar el gasto. Primero, el ha usado la amenaza del cierre del gobierno, despues ha sentado a Paul Ryan en primera fila para dar su discurso y llamar su propuesta de recorte de gasto anti-americano.

Ahora Obama esta usando el limite de la deuda para evitar controlar el gasto y amentar impuestos. Su propuesta de recorte: $2 billones.

Y los programas de beneficios sociales no se reforman . ni se recortan, ni se tocan, especialmente el ObamaCare a pesar del $1 trillon de gasto nuevo en los proximos anios y creciendo aun mas rapido despues.

Y ahora tenemos el inevitable choque debido al limite de la deuda, el cual debe aumentarse para pagar por todo esto. Y Obama esta culpando a los republicanos de irresposanbles porque no quieren subir impuestos en retorno a las promesas de que en un futuro recortara modestamente el gasto. Y algunas personas se la creen.

Nosotros hemos dicho que seria tonto que los republicanos aceptaran la trampa de Obama del limite de la deuda para despues ser culpados por el mismo por la caida financiera, incluyendo un posible downgrade. Asi la crisis de la deuda se solucione, la amenaza del recorte del rating de deuda continuara y crecera hasta que Obama cambie sus politicas, o los Americanos cambien de presidente.




The Obama Downgrade
The real reason the U.S. could lose its AAA rating

So the credit-rating agencies that helped to create the financial crisis that led to a deep recession are now warning that the U.S. could lose the AAA rating it has had since 1917. As painfully ironic as this is, there's no benefit in shooting the messengers. The real culprit is the U.S. political class, especially the President who has presided over this historic collapse of fiscal credibility.

Moody's and the boys are citing the risk of a default on August 2 as the proximate reason for their warning. But Americans should understand that the debt ceiling is merely the trigger. The gun is the spending boom of the last three years and the prospect that Washington lacks the political will to reduce it in the years to come.

On spending, it is important to recall how extraordinary the blowout of the last three years has been. We've seen nothing like it since World War II. Nothing close. The nearby chart tracks federal outlays as a share of GDP since 1960. The early peaks coincide with the rise of the Great Society, the recession of 1974-75, and then a high of 23.5% with the recession of 1982 and the Reagan defense buildup.

From there, spending declines, most rapidly during the 1990s as defense outlays fell to 3% of GDP in 2000 from its Reagan peak of 6.2% in 1986. The early George W. Bush years saw spending bounce up to a plateau of roughly 20% of GDP, but no more than 20.7% as recently as 2008.

Then came the Obama blowout, in league with Nancy Pelosi's Congress. With the recession as a rationale, Democrats consciously blew up the national balance sheet, lifting federal outlays to 25% in 2009, the highest level since 1945. (Even in 1946, with millions still in the military, spending was only 24.8% of GDP. In 1947 it fell to 14.8%.) Though the recession ended in June 2009, spending in 2010 stayed high at nearly 24%, and this year it is heading back toward 25%.

This is the main reason that federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP has climbed from 40.3% in 2008, to 53.5% in 2009, 62.2% in 2010 and an estimated 72% this year, and is expected to keep rising in the future. These are heights not seen since the Korean War, and many analysts think U.S. debt will soon hit 90% or 100% of GDP.

Congress is responsible for the way so much of this spending was wasted, resulting in little job creation and the slowest economic recovery since the 1930s. But in the U.S. political system, Presidents are supposed to be the fiscal adults. When they abdicate, the teenagers invite over their special interest friends and blow the inheritance.

The President is now claiming to have found fiscal virtue, but notice how hard he has fought House Republicans as they've sought to abate the spending boom. First he used the threat of a government shutdown to whittle the fiscal 2011 spending cuts down to very little. Then he invited Paul Ryan to sit in the front row for a speech while he called his House budget un-American.

Now Mr. Obama is using the debt-ceiling debate as a battering ram not to control spending but to command a tax increase. We're told the White House list of immediate budget savings, the ones that matter most because they are enforceable by the current Congress, are negligible. His offer for immediate domestic nondefense discretionary cuts: $2 billion.

As for Mr. Obama's proposed entitlement cuts, they are all nibbling around the edges of programs that are growing far faster than inflation. He's offering few reforms that would make a difference in the long run. Oh, and ObamaCare is untouchable, despite its $1 trillion in new spending over the next several years, growing even faster after that.

So now we have the inevitable showdown over the debt limit, which must be raised to pay for all of this spending. And Mr. Obama is blaming Republicans for being irresponsible because they won't raise taxes in return for promises of modest future spending restraint. And some people even fall for it.

We've said we think it would be foolish of Republicans to walk into Mr. Obama's debt-limit trap and let him blame them for the financial fallout, including a possible credit downgrade. But this is not because we think they will deserve the blame. Even if this debt-ceiling crisis passes, the threat of a credit downgrade will continue and grow until Mr. Obama changes his policies, or Americans change Presidents.
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:35 am

El_Diez escribió:Lo peor es que de ser cierta esta invitación al gobierno de Irán, podría dañar las buenas relaciones que tiene el Perú con EEUU .. .


Donde manda capitan, no manda marinero, esas son ordenes de Chavez que Humala tiene que obedecer calladito, ya tendran que irse acostumbrando a codearse con todos los asesinos, criminales y terroristas de todo el mundo.

Me pregunto si eso apoyan los anti-fujimoristas. A ellos no les molestara asociarse con los verdaderos asesinos del mundo?
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 12:38 am

Si Obama quisiera podria aumentar los impuestos en el Senado donde tiene mayoria. El problema es que tendra que convencer a los democratas en esa casa, de elevar impuestos cuando la economia esta flojeando. Los mismos democratas no van a querer votar por un aumento de impuestos.

----------------

The No-New-Taxes Democrats
Obama and Reid need to convince their own caucus to raise taxes.

If Democrats think it is a national priority to raise taxes to lower the deficit, why don't they take a stand in the Senate and do it?

Democrats hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Majority Leader Harry Reid shouldn't need a single Republican vote to move his tax agenda forward. A budget resolution requires only 51 votes, which means Democrats could vote today to pass a budget resolution on a $1 trillion tax increase as President Obama has endorsed, or the $2 trillion that Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad has proposed.

Instead, Mr. Reid continues to put any Democratic budget with tax increases in the deep freeze even as the party keeps saying the polls show that Americans support a tax hike as part of a debt plan. Why not go for it?

The answer is Senator Reid can't rally his own caucus to get anywhere near 51 votes for a big tax increase. Even as President Obama and Mr. Reid continue to push for a closed-door bipartisan agreement to raise taxes, the only bipartisan consensus in the Senate on taxes right now is . . . against raising them. Here's a sampling:

Ben Nelson of Nebraska, up for re-election in November 2012: "Raising taxes at a time when our economy remains fragile takes us in the wrong direction." He adds: "If we start with plans to raise taxes, pretty soon spending cuts will fall by the wayside."

Joe Manchin of West Virginia, also up for re-election next year, told us: "Make no mistake, I don't believe in tax hikes, I believe in tax fairness." This means closing "unnecessary loopholes."

Virginia's Jim Webb, who is retiring at the end of next year: "During my time in the Senate, I have consistently opposed the notion of increasing revenues through raising taxes on ordinary, earned income—those amounts, whether large or small, that Americans take home as part of their every-day work and their basic compensation packages." He said he advocates raising taxes "by other means," including "ending costly subsidies and tax loopholes or by adjusting such measures as capital gains."

Joe Lieberman, the independent from Connecticut, told the Connecticut Mirror he has a lot of "unanswered questions" about the Democratic budget plan, and that the $2 trillion to come from tax hikes could be too "high" for him to accept. "For 50% to come from tax increases is a lot."

Specific tax-hike proposals also hit a wall of opposition in the Democratic caucus. An increase on the oil and gas industry, a top priority for the White House, has firm opposition from three energy-state Democrats—Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Begich of Alaska and Mr. Nelson of Nebraska. Ms. Landrieu cites bipartisan opposition to the idea.

Bill Nelson of Florida and Mr. Begich have expressed reservations about another populist Democratic revenue raiser: a millionaire surtax.

One of the most unjustified tax loopholes is the ethanol subsidy. But 13 Senate Democrats voted against a measure earlier this year to kill it, including Iowa liberal Tom Harkin.

The White House and Harry Reid may think Americans favor reducing debt with a big tax increase. But first they need to convince the antitax Democrats in their own caucus.
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 5:54 am

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note -0/32 0.380
10-Year Note 2/32 2.951
* at close

4:50 a.m. EDT 07/15/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 95.49 -0.20 95.69
Gold 1580.9 -8.4 1589.3
E-mini Dow 12405 23 12382
E-mini S&P 500 1307.00 0.25 1306.75

5:00 a.m. EDT 07/15/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 79.24 79.14
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4138 1.4143
† Late Thursday in New York.
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 5:59 am

Plan B

Es un paquete de recortes de gastos del gobierno de Obama junto con un poder otorgado al presidente para que pueda aumentar el limite de la deuda hasta el 2012 en 3 partes, a menos que las dos terceras partes del Congreso lo bloquee. No aumentaria los impuestos.

The so-called Plan B is taking shape in quiet discussions between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) and Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), away from unhappy House Republicans who don't favor the approach.

It would link a package of spending cuts to a plan Mr. McConnell proposed earlier this week that would give the president the power to raise the debt limit through 2012 in three installments, unless two-thirds of Congress voted to block it. It likely wouldn't include any tax increases, a senior Democratic aide familiar with the discussions said.
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 6:02 am

Icahn comprara Clorox por $10.2 billones, el inversionista la hara privada.

Oil down 95.46, Au down 1,582.70, todos los metales a la baja tambien.

Las ventas de Volkswagen subieron 14%

+21

Europa a la baja, el Asia cerro mixta.

Euro up 1.4151
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 6:03 am

Mattel reporta mejor a lo esperado.

Ag down 38.18
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 6:05 am

El IMF advierte que la banca europa no esta suficientemente capitalizada.

Banca Irlandesa gana la aprobacion de ayuda del gobierno.
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 6:07 am

Citi reporta hoy dia.



Tomorrow’s Tape: Bright Lights, Big Citi

By Mark Gongloff

Economics:

8:30 a.m. ET all times: The June CPI is due. Prices fell, economists foretell.
8:30 a.m.: The Empire State factory index for July. Factories will relieve, economists believe.
9:15 a.m.: Industrial production and capacity utilization data for June. Mild recovery on the way, economists say.
9:55 a.m.: The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for July. Dismal sentiment perked up a tick, economists predict.
Earnings: We get reports from:

Genuine Parts
First Horizon National
Mattel
Citigroup
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 6:23 am

AAPL +0.85%
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Re: Viernes 15/07/11 US no caera en default, aumentaran el l

Notapor admin » Vie Jul 15, 2011 6:25 am

+14
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