por admin » Mié Jul 27, 2011 9:41 pm
El camino al downgrade
Una corta historia del estado de los programas sociales
Aun sin el default de la deuda, todo parece indicar que las agencias calificadoras le daran un downgrade a la deuda americana, le quitaran el AAA que el pais ha gozado por decadas.
Un downgrade no es catastrofico por que el mercado financiero decide que tan seguros son los bonos americanos, no Moody's ni Standard & Poor's. Las buenas noticias son que los inversionistas siguen comprando los bonos Treasury, los cuales estan garantizados por todo el poder y fe del gobierno de US, casi zero riesgo de inversion. Pero un downgrade hara que suban los intereses de la deuda, especialmente para los estados cuyas instituciones estan pegadas a los treasurys. Por encima de el downgrade es un simbolo de el mal manejo fiscal y que cosas peores vendran si se continuan las mismas practicas.
Obama recibira la gran parte de la culpa por aumentar en dos anios la deuda del gobierno de la manera que lo ha hecho. Pero el origen del downgrade se remonta a decadas y esta es una buena oportunidad para revisar este capitulo triste con $14.3 trillones de deuda.
FDR empezo la era delos beneficios sociales con el New Deal y el Social Security, pero por decadas permanecio limitado. El gasto cayo dramaticamente despues del final de la Segunda Guerra Mundial cuando era el 100% de PBI (GDP). Eso cambio a mediados de los 60x cuando LBJ Great Society. Medicare y Medicaid fueron lanzados en 1965 con estimados de costos totalmente subestimados.
Medicare, el programa para los ancianos, nos dijeron que costaria $12 billones para 1990 pero en realidad costo $110 billones. El costo de Medicaid, el programa para lso pobres, ha explotado gracias a los politicos comop el democrata de California Henry Waxman expandio el acceso al programa. Con los dolares ajustados a la inflacion, el costo de Medicai fue de $4 billones en 1966, $41 billones en 1986 y $243 billones el anio pasado. En lugar de rebajar el costo, el gobierno como encargado de los pagos ha hecho que los precios suban como un espiral.
KBJ lanzo otro programa de beneficio social -el programa de casas para los pobres, las estampillas de alimentos y muchos mas - los cuales tambien han crecido con los anios. El anio pasado todos los programas de beneficios sociales han costado $20,000 por cada, hombre, mujer y ninios en la pobreza.
Los problemas de social security empezaron en 1972 cuando los beneficios aumentaron en 20% mas se le agrego el ajuste de la inflacion, todos estos programas agregados por los democratas agregaron trillones a las deudas sin fondos del gobierno. Creanlo o no, esos programas fueron agregados al limite de la deuda en 1972.
Ninguno de los beneficios sociales estuvieron sujetos a revisiones de presupuesto cada anio si no que se fueron agregando por piloto automatico. Los llamaron "gastos obligatorios" porque el Congreso esta obligado por ley a hacer los pagos para cubrir estos beneficios no importa si existen los fondos o no.
De acuerdo a la ultima informacion del gobierno, hoy dia 50.5 millones de americanos estan en Medicaid, 46.5 millones en Medicare y 52 millones en Social Security, 5 millones reciben seguro de desempleo en SSI, 7.5 millones estan con seguro de desempleo, 44.6 millones reciben estampillas de alimentos y otros programas de nutricion. 24 millones reciben un credito en sus declaraciones de impuestos y tambien dinero en efectivo.
Para el 2010 los pagos a los individuos eran el 66% del presupuesto total del gobierno, era solo 28% en 1965. Ahora gastamos $2.1 trillones al anio en esos programas de redistribucion y 75 millones de baby boomers recien estan empezando a retirarse.
Nosotros sospechamos que en 1960 como ahora con ObamaCare - los liberales han creado bombas fiscales ed tiempo. Ellos simplemente asumen que los impuestos seguiran subiendo para pagar por ellos , como en Europa.
El Lunes en la noche Obama culpo a Bush por las dos guerras y el aumento de la deuda por ese motivo. Pero el gasto ne defensa fue 7.4% del GDP (PBI) y 42.8% en 1965 y solo 4/8% del PBI y 20.1% de los gastos del gobierno en 2010/ Defensa nunca ha causado ninguna crisis.
Muchos en la izquierda aun culpan a Ronald Reagan, pero el aumento de la deuda en los 80s fue financiada con una robusta recuperacion de y expansion y la victoria de la guerra fria. La deuda al final de los anios de Reagan fu 41% en 1988 y 40.3% en el 2008 comparado con el estimado de 72% eb el anio fiscal del 2011. Esa victoria de la guerra fria le dio los dividendos a Clinton para pudiera balancear al presupuesto en los 90s cortando defensa al 3% del PBI, despues de haber sido casi 6% en 1988.
Bush y los republicanos probaron que aumentar el gasto es bipartidario. Los republicanos lanzaron el medicare de farmacia, gasto que rimpio record en educacion, transporte, y ayuda para comprar casas.
Y llego Obama, el mas gastador de la historia. El heredo una recesion y respondio haciendo explotar el balance del pais. El gasto como porcentaje del PBI (GDP) en los ultimos tres anios es mas alto que cualquier otro anio desde 1946. En tres anios la deuda ha aumentado mas de $4 trillones gracias al estimulo, cash for crankers, modificacion de hipotecas, 99 semanas de pago a los desempleados., extensiones en Medicaid y mucho mas.
El pronostico de gasto es entre $8 trillones y $10 trillones mas en rojo a traves del 2021. Obama ha dicho que si no fuera por los republicanos, hace rato hubiera lanzado otro estimulo. Esto asusta: nada de esto incluye el ObamaCare que pondra otros 30 millones de americanos en la planilla de gastos del gobierno.
Este es el camino a la perdicion fiscal. El downgrade solo confirma lo que ya todos sabemos: El congreso ha hecho tantas promesas a tantos americanos que no hay manera material de cumplir las promesas Economicamente es la ruina de este pais..
Sin embargo Obama y la mayoria ed los democratas se oponen a reforma de Medicare, Medicaid y Social Security. Esta negativa a reformas los programas refuerza el pensamiento que nuestro gobierno de beneficencia es muy grande para poder cambiar politicamente, pero tambien muy grande para cambiar politicamente. Asi es como la AAA se convierte en AA, el primer paso a la marcha al estilo de Grecia.
The Road to a Downgrade
A short history of the entitlement state.
Even without a debt default, it looks increasingly possible that the world's credit rating agencies will soon downgrade U.S. debt from the AAA standing it has enjoyed for decades.
A downgrade isn't catastrophic because global financial markets decide the creditworthiness of U.S. securities, not Moody's and Standard & Poor's. The good news is that investors still regard Treasury bonds, which carry the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, as a near zero-risk investment. But a downgrade will raise the cost of credit, especially for states and institutions whose debt is pegged to Treasurys. Above all a downgrade is a symbol of fiscal mismanagement and an omen of worse to come if we continue the same habits.
President Obama will deserve much of the blame for the spending blowout of his first two years (see the nearby chart). But the origins of this downgrade go back decades, and so this is a good time to review the policies that brought us to this sad chapter and $14.3 trillion of debt.
With former President Truman at his side, LBJ signs the Medicare bill into law, July 30, 1965.
.FDR began the entitlement era with the New Deal and Social Security, but for decades it remained relatively limited. Spending fell dramatically after the end of World War II and the U.S. debt burden fell rapidly from 100% of GDP. That changed in the mid-1960s with LBJ's Great Society and the dawn of the health-care state. Medicare and Medicaid were launched in 1965 with fairy tale estimates of future costs.
Medicare, the program for the elderly, was supposed to cost $12 billion by 1990 but instead spent $110 billion. The costs of Medicaid, the program for the poor, have exploded as politicians like California Democrat Henry Waxman expanded eligibility and coverage. In inflation-adjusted dollars, Medicaid cost $4 billion in 1966, $41 billion in 1986 and $243 billion last year. Rather than bending the cost curve down, the government as third-party payer led to a medical price spiral.
LBJ launched other welfare programs—public housing, food stamps and many more—that have also grown over time. Last year, the panoply of welfare programs spent about $20,000 for every man, woman and child in poverty, according to Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation.
Social Security's fiscal trouble began in earnest in 1972 with bills that increased benefits immediately by 20%, added an annual cost of living adjustment, and created a benefit escalator requiring payments to rise with wages, not inflation. This and other tweaks by Democrat Wilbur Mills added trillions of dollars to the program's unfunded liabilities. Believe it or not, these 1972 amendments were added to a debt-ceiling bill.
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..None of these benefit expansions were subject to annual budget review and thus they grew by automatic pilot. They are sometimes called "mandatory spending" because Congress is required by law to make payments to those who meet eligibility standards, regardless of other spending needs or tax revenues.
According to the most recent government data, today some 50.5 million Americans are on Medicaid, 46.5 million are on Medicare, 52 million on Social Security, five million on SSI, 7.5 million on unemployment insurance, and 44.6 million on food stamps and other nutrition programs. Some 24 million get the earned-income tax credit, a cash income supplement.
By 2010 such payments to individuals were 66% of the federal budget, up from 28% in 1965. (See the second chart.) We now spend $2.1 trillion a year on these redistribution programs, and the 75 million baby boomers are only starting to retire.
We suspect that in the 1960s as now—with ObamaCare—liberals knew they had created fiscal time-bombs. They simply assumed that taxes would keep rising to pay for it all, as they have in Europe.
On Monday night Mr. Obama blamed President George W. Bush's "two wars" for the debt buildup. But national defense spending was 7.4% of GDP and 42.8% of outlays in 1965, and only 4.8% of GDP and 20.1% of federal outlays in 2010. Defense has not caused the debt crisis.
Many on the left still blame Ronald Reagan, but the debt increase in the 1980s financed a robust economic expansion and victory in the Cold War. Debt held by the public at the end of the Reagan years was much lower as a share of GDP (41% in 1988 and still only 40.3% in 2008) compared to the estimated 72% in fiscal 2011. That Cold War victory made possible the peace dividend that allowed Bill Clinton to balance the budget in the 1990s by cutting defense spending to 3% of GDP from nearly 6% in 1988.
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..Mr. Bush and Republicans did prove after 9/11 that the Washington urge to spend and borrow is bipartisan. Republicans launched a Medicare drug benefit, record outlays on education, the most expensive transportation bill in history, and home ownership aid that contributed to the housing bubble. The GOP's blunder was refusing to cut domestic spending to finance the war on terrorism. Guns and butter blowouts never last.
Then came Mr. Obama, arguably the most spendthrift president in history. He inherited a recession and responded by blowing up the U.S. balance sheet. Spending as a share of GDP in the last three years is higher than at any time since 1946. In three years the debt has increased by more than $4 trillion thanks to stimulus, cash for clunkers, mortgage modification programs, 99 weeks of jobless benefits, record expansions in Medicaid, and more.
The forecast is for $8 trillion to $10 trillion more in red ink through 2021. Mr. Obama hinted in a press conference earlier this month that if it weren't for Republicans, he'd want another stimulus. Scary thought: None of this includes the ObamaCare entitlement that will place 30 million more Americans on government health rolls.
This is the road to fiscal perdition. The looming debt downgrade only confirms what everyone knows: Congress has made so many promises to so many Americans that there is no conceivable way those promises can be kept. Tax rates might have to rise to 60%, 70%, even 80% to raise the revenues to finance these promises, but that would be economically ruinous.
Yet Mr. Obama and most Democrats still oppose any serious reform of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. This insistence on no reform reinforces the notion that our entitlement state is too big to afford but also too big to change politically. This is how a AAA country becomes AA, the first step on the march to Greece.